North Carolina 2021 Football Preview

2020 Recap

North Carolina entered 2020 hoping to build on an encouraging first season under Mack Brown. They started the season with three straight wins against Syracuse, Boston College and Virginia Tech. In game four, North Carolina fell behind against Florida State and was unable to rally, losing 31 – 28 to Florida State. Unfortunately this was a trend for North Carolina who was very good at times but would fall behind and give away a game they shouldn’t as well.

After a win over in-state rival NC State, North Carolina again fell behind big and was unable to complete the rally in a 44 – 41 loss to Virginia. The Tar Heels again bounced back with two straight wins, but were unable to match-up with Notre Dame in a 31 – 17 loss to close out November.

North Carolina got back on track the next week against Western Carolina and then played their best game of the season in the ACC finale against Miami. The Tar Heels ran for 554 yards and 10.1 yards per carry in a dominant 62 – 26 win. North Carolina was not at full strength for the Orange Bowl when several key offensive players opting out and lost 41 – 27. The 8 – 4 season could have been better, but North Carolina did build on 2019 and is set up for a good 2021 season.

2020 Leaders

Projected Starters

Reasons For Optimism

Sam Howell

The quarterback position is the most important on the field and North Carolina has the best quarterback in college football. In his second year with the team, Howell averaged 10.3 yards per attempt and a 30 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio. He is a talented and experienced quarterback who has already proven he is a star. Howell is an accurate quarterback who throws arguably the best deep ball in college football. His presence will make the transition to a new group of skill players easier in 2021. Now in his third year with North Carolina, it will be interesting to see how much better Howell can be in 2021.

Experienced Offensive Line

If you have an elite quarterback the next most important thing is to protect him. The Tar Heels return plenty of experience on the offensive line from 2020 and will return all five starters. The offensive line helped pave the way for two 1,000 yard rushers in a shortened season. They did struggle with pass protection at times, allowing 2.8 sacks per game in 2020. Experience is golden for offensive lineman and with a full season and a true off-season under their belt, this unit should perform better in 2021. That offensive line leading the way in the running game and protecting Howell will help the offense transition to a new wave of talent at the skill positions.

Defense Returns Plenty of Talent

North Carolina returns starters at every level of the defense. The defensive line will have Tomari Fox and Raymond Vohasek back, while Myles Murphy rotated in plenty last season. The linebacker group returns everyone except Chazz Surratt and will do so with Eugene Asante who filled in for Surratt in the Orange Bowl. The secondary returns all five starters as well as Storm Duck, who could compete for a starting spot or will be the third cornerback. Several of the younger players have now had time to develop and with nine of eleven starters returning the defense will be experienced and deep in 2021. An improved defense will help the offense not feel the pressure to score every time they get the ball this year and will make for a more complete team.

Causes For Concern

Lost Production at Skill Positions

While Howell and the offensive line are back, the players who were on the receiving end of most of the passes last year and the top runners behind that line have moved on to the NFL. Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome accounted for 1,783 receiving yards between the two of them. That’s nearly half of North Carolina’s receiving yards last season, add in the yards that Javonte Williams and Michael Carter tallied and North Carolina lost 65 percent of it’s receiving production. Williams and Carter both eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards as well and were responsible for 84 percent of the team’s rushing yards in 2020. The Tar Heels lose four high level players at the skill positions and will need new stars to emerge for the offense to be successful in 2021.

Replacing Surratt

On defense, the Tar Heels have one big star to replace in Chazz Surratt. Surratt was the quarterback of the defense and by far the most productive player for the unit. He led the team with 91 tackles, had 7.5 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 3 pass breakups 1 fumble forced and 1 interception. In addition to his statistical impact on the game, Surratt was a player offensive coordinators had to game plan for on a weekly basis. The defense returns plenty of experience from last year’s unit, but they will not return their best player and leader. The Tar Heels will need other players to step up and fill the leadership and production void left by Surratt’s departure.

2021 Schedule

Top 25 Players

2021 Projection

North Carolina is an interesting spot this season, the team returns one of the top quarterbacks in the game, the entire offensive line and a plethora of defensive starters from 2020, but has key stars to replace. It’s hard to imagine North Carolina not being a good team in 2021, but the question is how good can they be? The season opens with five home games in seven weeks before the bye. The toughest game during that stretch is probably the home game against Miami who will be looking to avenge last year’s loss. North Carolina did lose to Virginia and Florida State last year, but both those games are at home this year and the team will not overlook them. After the bye week a trip to Notre Dame will be the toughest game of the regular season. After that two tricky road games include a game at Pittsburgh and the season finale against in-state rival North Carolina State. With a manageable schedule and Howell back to lead the way, North Carolina should build on last season’s success. A ten win season should be expected and the Tar Heels will compete with Miami atop the Coastal standings.