Game To Watch: #9 Iowa at Wisconsin: October 30, 2021

Iowa and Wisconsin will play a key Big Ten West game in Madison on Saturday at 12:00 EST. Iowa lost to Purdue 24 – 7 before the bye week, dropping them to 6 – 1 and 3 – 1 in Big Ten play. Meanwhile, Wisconsin beat Purdue 30 – 13 on the road last week, pulling their record to 4 – 3 overall and 2 – 2 in the Big Ten. Both teams are still in position to win the Big Ten West this year and a win Saturday would be a big step towards that goal.

Recent History

Wisconsin is 48 – 44 – 2 against Iowa all time. The Badgers have won seven of the last nine in the series, though Iowa did win 28 – 7 in Iowa City last year. Wisconsin won the 2019 match-up 24 – 22 at home. The Hawkeyes led the all time series before Wisconsin won in 2011 and took over the series lead with their recent run.

Top 25 Players

What To Watch For…

Can Wisconsin Continue to Ride their Running Game?

Wisconsin opened the season 1 – 3 and struggled turning the ball over in the passing game. Over the last three games against Illinois, Army and Purdue, the Badgers have decided to lean heavily on their running game and throw the ball less. The pass attempts went from 30.3 per game over the first four games to 19 against Illinois, 15 against Army and 8 against Purdue. Unless the opposition forces them to, Wisconsin simply will not throw the ball. They have averaged 51.7 carries per game over that stretch and have rode Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen to three straight wins. Iowa’s defense is one of the toughest in the conference and will make it difficult for the Badgers to be one dimensional. The Hawkeyes have been excellent against the run this year, holding opponents to 2.7 yards per carry and 89.9 yards per game. The Hawkeyes have a physical and disciplined defense that forces the offense out of it’s comfort zone. Iowa will have to continue to play strong run defense and force Wisconsin to throw the ball on Saturday.

Did the Bye Help Iowa’s Offense?

As good as Iowa’s defense has been, the offense has struggled mightily at times. Iowa ranks fifth in the Big Ten in scoring at 28 points per game, but that has been more because of the defense scoring off turnovers and putting them in great field position than the productivity of the offense. The Hawkeyes rank 12th in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game and yards per carry and 9th in passing yards per game and yards per attempt. The struggles running and throwing the ball have Iowa ranked 13th in the Big Ten in total offense. Iowa had a bye week after their seven point performance in the loss to Purdue and needed to revamp their offensive attack. Wisconsin’s defense is certainly not an easy one to get on track against. The Badgers have the best run defense in the conference by a sizeable margin, allowing 1.9 yards per carry and just 53 yards per game. The pass defense is only slightly more vulnerable, ranking 2nd in the Big Ten with 6 yards per attempt and 170 yards per game against. The only way to attack Wisconsin’s defense has been to wear them down and get turnovers against the offense to get plus field position. Iowa will have a tough test on Saturday and they will need to prove that the bye week gave their offense the reset it needed.

Will Graham Mertz Protect the Ball?

Iowa has thrived in 2021 because their defense has excelled forcing turnovers. The Hawkeyes lead the country with 21 turnovers forced this year, 16 interceptions and 5 fumble recoveries in seven games. They have been able to flip the momentum of the game and get their offense a short field over and over again. Iowa has forced at least one turnover in every game this year and has forced multiple turnovers four times. On the other sideline, Graham Mertz and Wisconsin have struggled with turnovers. Wisconsin has lost 17 turnovers already this year, the fourth most in college football. Graham Mertz has been the main culprit for the Badgers’ turnover woes, he has 7 interceptions and 6 fumbles lost already this season. His propensity to turn the ball over has cost the Badgers games and led to ultra run heavy approach the offense has taken lately. Iowa will do all they can to stop the running game and force Mertz to put the ball in the air, when that happens the Wisconsin quarterback will have to protect the ball against a defense that leads the country in turnovers forced.

Prediction

Iowa and Wisconsin both have excellent defenses that will dominate the game. Wisconsin is committed to the running game and will attempt to impose their will on the game regardless of how much you dare them to throw the ball. Against most teams that running game can carry the load, but Iowa’s defense is too good to beat with a one dimensional offense. They will force Mertz to make plays and that’s a formula that will lead to Iowa getting the big turnovers and winning the game. Iowa 24 Wisconsin 13.

For more content like this don’t forget to subscribe to our website.

For the latest content follow us on twitter @saturdayscfb & @cfbsaturdaysC or on Facebook at www.facebook.com/CFBSaturday

Iowa Loses to Wisconsin image taken by Phil Roeder is licensed under CC BY 2.0.