Game To Watch: #8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State: October 23, 2021

Oklahoma State has another big road test against Iowa State this Saturday at 3:30 EST. The Cowboys are 6 – 0 after gutting out a tough road win against Texas last week. The Cylcones are 4 – 2 after back to back wins over Kansas and Kansas State. Iowa State cannot afford to lose anymore ground to undefeated Oklahoma State in the Big 12 standings.

Recent History

Oklahoma State has gone 33 – 19 – 3 against Iowa State all time. The Cowboys have won 8 of the last 9 and are carrying a two game winning streak into this game, including a hard fought 24 – 21 win during the 2020 season. Iowa State’s last win in the series came in 2018 in a 48 – 42 shootout in Stillwater. The two teams have played one another tough of late as the last seven games of the series have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Top 25 Players

What To Watch For…

Can Iowa State Score Consistently Against Oklahoma State?

Iowa State’s offense struggled early in the season but is playing much better the last four weeks. The Cyclones have scored 29 or more points in each of the last four games and have been successful running the ball (225 yards per game) and throwing the ball (263.5 yards per game) over that stretch. That balance has made the Iowa State offense difficult to stop the last four games. The Cyclones are hitting their stride offensively, but they will face their toughest test since the Iowa game this weekend. Oklahoma State has been as consistent as possible on defense. The Cowboys are allowing 19.5 points per game this year and have held all six of their opponents between 14 and 24 points. There are no great performances skewing the average and no poor performances that have to be explained away. The Cowboys have allowed just 3 yards per carry against the run and 6.4 yards per attempt against the pass. Iowa State will have to prove their offense is ready to move the ball against a sound defense that brings it every week.

Which QB will Protect the Ball?

Brock Purdy and Spencer Sanders both have shown the ability to make big plays but both have struggled with turnovers in big games. Purdy has played well overall this season, completing 73.9 percent of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. The problem is the interceptions against the better defenses, Purdy has only thrown four interceptions this season, but three of them came in the loss against Iowa and one in the loss against Baylor. Sanders has not been in rhythm this year and is carrying a career low completion percentage of 58.6 percent and he has just 6 touchdown passes against 5 interceptions. So far Oklahoma State has been able to win in spite of these inconsistencies, but Sanders needs to play better for the team to reach it’s potential. With two good teams facing off this weekend, it’s imperative that the quarterbacks protect the football.

Which Running Game Sets the Tone?

Both Iowa State and Oklahoma State want to establish their running game early to soften up the defense. Breece Hall is rolling for the Cyclones, coming into the game with four straight 100 yard games and two touchdowns in each of the last four games. Through six games, Hall has 748 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. If he gets going on the ground it opens up the passing game for Purdy and the receivers. Oklahoma State’s running game did not start the season strong but came on with the emergence of Jaylen Warren. He had a breakout game against Boise State, rushing for 218 yards and has run for 100 yards in each of the three games since. He was critical in the win over Texas, carrying the ball 33 times for 193 yards. Oklahoma State will look for another big performance from Warren to carry the load for the offense. The team that runs the ball more effectively will keep the pressure off their QB and set themselves up for success.

Prediction

Oklahoma State is playing back to back road games against tough opponents and will have to be recharged and refocused to start the game. Their defense is good enough to keep them close early even if the offense needs some time to get on track. Iowa State has plenty of play-makers that will challenge the Oklahoma State defense and score some points, but Oklahoma State has proven resilient and will do enough to hold on for the win. Oklahoma State 27 Iowa State 24.

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ISU vs OSU 2019-10-26 Image by Daniel Hartwig is licensed under CC BY 2.0