What We Are Watching In College Football: October 3, 2020 Weekend

Each week we will provide a preview of the upcoming college football weekend. This weekend things will being to heat up with some juicy conference showdowns to sink our teeth into. There are a several games and match-ups to keep an eye on so without further ado here is what we are focused on this weekend. (For a recap of last weekend, click here)

The Games We Will Focus On

TCU at Texas (Sat 12:00 PM, Fox)

Both teams are coming off a high scoring shootout in their last game. Texas needed overtime to get past Texas Tech 63 – 56 and TCU came up a bit short in their 37 – 34 loss against Iowa State. Expect both teams to keep the scoreboard operator busy in Austin this weekend.

The TCU offense did not get off to a great start last week against Iowa State, but hit it’s stride when Max Duggan came in at quarterback. Duggan was expected to be TCU’s starter this year but missed time in camp due to illness and was just recently cleared to play. TCU held him out as a precaution, but ultimately decided to let him play the second half. Duggan was sharp, averaging 12.7 yards per attempt while throwing three touchdowns against just one interception. The Horned Frogs struggled early and were forced to play catch-up most of the game, so they could not establish the running game. The passing game excelled with Duggan at the helm and should continue to improve as the younger receivers develop, and transfer addition JD Spielman becomes more familiar with the offense. Of course, in order for Duggan and the receivers to do damage the offensive line will have to improve their pass blocking from last weeks abysmal performance in which the team allowed seven sacks.

The Texas defense did not have a good weekend. Texas Tech raced up and down the field, scoring 56 points against the Longhorns. Despite the pass heavy attack from the Red Raiders, Texas was not able to record a sack in the game. If they are unable to get pressure on Duggan on Saturday it will be another rough weekend for the defense. The leader on this side of the ball is safety Caden Sterns (#8 S in our rankings) who made a big interception to end the game last weekend. He is joined in the secondary by junior cornerback D’Shawn Jamison (#23 CB in our rankings) to give the Longhorns a pair of talented players in the defensive backfield. Texas needs pass rushers so they can disrupt the passing game without having to send extra blitzers. Senior defensive tackle Taquon Graham (#10 DT in our rankings) has made a couple tackles for loss this season. He is joined up front by true freshman defensive lineman Alfred Collins, who could be the key to helping the defense solve their pass rushing woes. The defense needs a bounce back performance and something has to give, either TCU’s offensive line will show improvement or Texas will get the pass rush they need.

Luckily, Tom Herman’s team has been humming along on offense to start the season. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger (#9 QB in our rankings) has gotten off to a strong start, passing for 344 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Ehlinger is a competitor who always seems to make the big play his team needs. He has spread the ball around among his receivers with seven different players catching a touchdown already this season. The offense has made it difficult for defenses to focus on any of the many weapons by getting several players involved early. The offensive line is led by left tackle Sam Cosmi who is one of the best tackles in the country. The unit has performed well so far this year, allowing just two sacks and paving the way for the explosive Texas offense. The Texas offense is in position to have another good game, taking on a defense that did not have it’s best showing against Iowa State.

The TCU defense gave up 37 points against Iowa State and a whopping 8.3 yards per play. The Horned Frogs have talented players in the back seven but need better play up front to allow those players to make plays. Safeties Trevon Moehrig and ArDarius Washington (#3 and #10 in our rankings) are as talented a pair as you will find in college football. They are both impact players on the back end of the defense who would benefit from a better pass rush. Another star to watch on the TCU defense is Garret Wallow, the #7 ranked LB in our rankings, who leads the team with 9 tackles and 2 tackles for loss. Wallow is an athletic player who does just about everything well, but again he would benefit from improved defensive line play. Which brings us to the 800 or so pound gorilla in the TCU defensive meeting room; the Horned Frogs have to identify defensive linemen who can be disruptive up front and put pressure on the opposing offense. If this group improves you will see the stars in the back seven play up to their potential and the defense will flourish, Saturday against Texas would be an excellent time for that if to happen.

We expect another shootout in Texas this weekend as both defenses are still trying to figure things out. Whichever team can get those things figured out faster and get a couple big plays from their defense will win what should be a high scoring affair in Austin.

Texas A&M at Alabama (Sat 3:30 PM, CBS)

The Aggies got the win against Vanderbilt but it was not a strong showing. Meanwhile, it was business as usual for Alabama who jumped out to big lead against Missouri then cruised in the second half for an easy win. This was a crazy preseason and a lot of teams have been sluggish out of the gate, Texas A&M will need to get things on track this weekend against Alabama or they will be watching the Tide put it in cruise control for the second week in a row.

Alabama is loaded on offense with talented weapons, an excellent offensive line and a steady quarterback. DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are an explosive duo at the receiver position that will put pressure on the best of secondaries. In the backfield, Najee Harris (#3 RB in our rankings) is a punishing runner who can chew up large chunks of yardage. The skill players are excellent, and the offensive line does an excellent job of providing the offense with time to operate and lanes to run through. The unit is led by left tackle Alex Leatherwood (#3 OT in our rankings) and left guard Deonte Brown (#3 OG/C) who provide an excellent left side to build the line around. Quarterback Mac Jones has been efficient and gets the ball to his weapons to allow them to make plays. Any defense will be hard pressed to slow down the Alabama offense in 2020.

A&M’s defense is the strength of the team early in the season and played well in the opener against Vanderbilt. The defense made 10 tackles for loss, while limiting Vandy to just 3.8 yards per play on the day. The Aggies feature a strong pair of safeties who both performed well in the opener. Demani Richardson was ranked the #17 safety in the country after a strong freshman season, and Leon O’Neal Jr was one of the stars of the weekend after his performance in the opener. The defensive line had several players step up including seniors Michael Clemons and Jayden Peavy as well as promising sophomore DeMarvin Leal. All three players were credited with multiple tackles for loss in the opener and will look to disrupt the Alabama offense. It is no secret that Alabama is a major step up in competition from Vanderbilt and the Aggies’ defense will need to be on their game.

The A&M offense on the other hand did not play well against Vanderbilt. Except for a few big plays running the ball by Isaiah Spiller (#25 RB in our rankings), who gained 117 yards rushing yards on just 8 carries, the offense was rather stagnant. The passing game failed to launch, which has been a troubling trend during the Kellen Mond era. The Aggies quarterback has a lot of talent but has not been able to put it together on the field. He had a promising performance as a sophomore against Clemson, passing for 430 yards, 3 TD and 10.8 yards per attempt, but has not been able to replicate that success against quality opponents since. We ranked Mond #15 in our QB rankings because of his physical tools, he will need to turn those tools into production this weekend for the Aggies to have a chance to win against Alabama.

After leading the country in scoring defense in 2016 and 2017, Alabama “dropped” to 12th and 13th in scoring defense the last two seasons. The Crimson Tide have been strong on defense for the past decade and we expect nothing less in 2020. The defense has stars at every level, led by LaBryan Ray (#4 DT in our rankings) up front, Dylan Moses (#2 LB in our rankings) in the middle, and Patrick Surtain II (#3 CB in our rankings) in the secondary. All three players are among the top draft prospects at their position for 2021 and can dominate the game. There is plenty of talent and depth to go with the three impact players listed, making it tough to find a weakness in the Alabama defense. Missouri did not have much success and scored 13 of their 19 points in the fourth quarter after the game was already decided. Texas A&M will need to make major improvements from last week to threaten the Alabama defense.

Nick Saban’s team missed the College Football Playoff for the first time last season and will be on a mission to get back in it this year. We expect Texas A&M to play better this week, its not uncommon for teams to overlook a lesser opponent the week before a big game. The Aggies will pull out all of the stops to try and get a win in Tuscaloosa, but unless Kellen Mond is able to elevate his game this weekend it will be tough to keep up with the Tide.

Auburn at Georgia (Sat 7:30 PM ESPN)

Auburn and Georgia both won their season openers, but both had some bumps along the way. Auburn was in a tight game against a solid Kentucky team before pulling away late. Georgia played a not so good Arkansas team and actually trailed midway through the third quarter before scoring 32 unanswered points and winning 37 – 10. This week there will be much less room for error for both teams as they square off in a prime-time matchup.

Auburn has it’s quarterback position sorted out and will go as far as sophomore, Bo Nix (#21 QB in our rankings), can take them. He had a solid freshman season a year ago showing his competitiveness and dual threat ability but needed to progress. If his first start of the 2020 season in any indication, he has made progress as a passer in year two. Nix averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in the opener (6.7 ypa in 2019), throwing three touchdowns without an interception. Two of those touchdowns went to star receiver Seth Williams (#23 WR in our rankings), who put on a show in the endzone. Williams is a tall and athletic pass catcher who will shoot up the rankings if he continues to perform the way he did in the opener. Auburn did struggle to run the ball against Kentucky, failing to eclipse 100 yards as a team and averaging just three yards per carry. The team will need to establish the run game and maintain some balance to have success against a strong Georgia defense.

Even when the team was struggling on Saturday, the defense was it’s usual self, keeping the Razorbacks from scoring points and buying the Bulldogs time to get going. The defense even pitched in a score of their own on an interception return for touchdown. Georgia has a stable of excellent prospects at their disposal and rotates players in and out of the game. The headliner for the unit is Richard LeCounte, he is the best safety in the country, and a playmaker in the secondary. LeCounte had two interceptions and a pass breakup against Arkansas, leading a strong effort by the Bulldogs defense. Georgia was a brick wall against the run, limiting Arkansas to just 2.8 yards per carry and a mere 77 rushing yards in the game. The pass defense was equally stellar, forcing three interceptions while holding the Razorbacks to 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs defense is strong against both the run and the pass and will be a major test for every offense they face this season.

The Bulldogs are replacing a lot of talent on offense from last year’s team and it showed early in the opener. With a new quarterback and running back to go with major turnover on the offensive line it would be foolish to think the offense would hit the ground running. Adding to the challenges was the decision by transfer quarterback Jamie Newman to opt out before the season began. The Bulldogs were left in a bind at the position, especially because fellow transfer quarterback JT Daniels was not medically cleared to play. Fortunately, junior quarterback Stetson Bennett was able to provide stability off the bench and guide the offense out of the malaise it was in. Georgia does have one of the best young receiver’s in the country in George Pickens. He is an all around talent with size, speed and hands, making him a tough cover for defensive backs. Georgia’s offense needs to find a rhythm, the run game was not very good last week and the passing game improved to average with Bennett. Auburn’s defense is a much tougher obstacle than Arkansas, Georgia will not be able to wait two and a half quarters to get going.

The Tigers’ defense lost some star power on the defensive line from 2019 but showed well on Saturday. They faced a good Kentucky run offense and held the Wildcats to just 3.6 yards per carry and 136 rushing yards. The defense is led by linebacker, KJ Britt (#19 LB in our rankings), who picked up right where he left off last season making 11 tackles in the opener with a tackle for loss as well. He is joined by up and comer Owen Pappoe, the sophomore linebacker had 8 tackles and a sack on Saturday. The pair compliments each other well and provides big play potential for the Auburn defense. The defense was up to the task in the opener and will continue to get better as players establish themselves in their new roles.

Both teams have aspirations of competing for the SEC championship in 2020 and will look to take the first step toward achieving that goal Saturday night. Georgia may have more talent on the roster, but Auburn has their quarterback position figured out. Saturday’s game could be the catalyst for the winning team achieving it’s lofty goals.

Oklahoma at Iowa State (7:30 PM, ABC)

This will be a contest between two teams who have both suffered upset losses early in the season. Iowa State bounced back from their loss to Louisiana with a 37 – 34 win over TCU. Oklahoma on the other hand is still licking it’s wounds after collapsing down the stretch in a 38 – 35 loss to Kansas State. Saturday night will be the second conference game for both teams, helping to shape the landscape in the Big 12.

Lincoln Riley has had some of the best offenses in the country during his tenure and his starting quarterbacks have always been Heisman finalists. 2020 marks the first time Riley’s team is being quarterbacked by a player he signed out of high school. Early on, Spencer Rattler has shown the ability to be a prolific player who could match his predecessors, but youth comes with growing pains. Rattler struggled late against Kansas State after opening up a 21 point lead late in the third quarter. Rattler is not the only youngster playing a key role for the Sooners’ offense is 2020, the teams leading rusher Seth McGowan and leading receiver Marvin Mims are both true freshmen. Both players have had their moments but young players need time to develop, especially with a young quarterback at the helm. Oklahoma’s offense has averaged 41.5 points per game through two games so it’s not like they have struggled, they just had a bad quarter, which can happen when you have youth at key spots.

Iowa State’s defense has played better than the points per game allowed number would indicate this year. The Cyclones have given up touchdowns on a kickoff return, punt return and fumble return this year. The points count all the same, but the defense cannot be held responsible for those. Iowa State has a ton of talent returning on defense from last year’s team. The group is led by safety Greg Eisworth, he is one of the best players at his position and will be counted on to make plays in the secondary against Oklahoma. Up front, the Cyclones will need defensive end JaQuan Bailey who had 3.5 sacks against TCU, to get pressure on Spencer Rattler. The Cyclones probably won’t stop Oklahoma’s offense outright, but they won’t have to, they just need to get a few stops and force a couple turnovers so their offense can win the game.

Iowa State’s offense is built around junior quarterback, Brock Purdy (#10 QB in our rankings), who played much better against TCU than he did in the opener against Louisiana. Two major factors could have contributed to the improved performance. First, star tight end Charlie Kolar played against TCU and even though he only caught five passes for 27 yards, he is one of the best tight ends in college football and forces the defense to pay attention to him when he is on the field. Second, the offensive line was able to provide better protection than they did against Louisiana. The offensive line being better, also helped running back Breece Hall turn in a big performance to help balance out the offense. The Cyclones will look to build on their success against TCU and attack the Oklahoma defense on Saturday night.

Oklahoma’s defense, like the entire team, played well for about 43 minutes on Saturday. In the end, the results were not pretty, Oklahoma allowed 13.4 yards per pass attempt and gave up 38 points. 24 of those points came in the last 17 minutes of the game when nothing seemed to go right for Oklahoma. We will find out over the next few weeks if this was just an aberration or if Kansas State exposed a weakness in the defense that other teams can capitalize on as well. The Oklahoma defense has not been a strength of the team despite the success the team has had over the past few seasons, Iowa State will be hoping for more of the same in 2020.

This a key game in the Big 12 championship picture. An Iowa State win gives them a three game lead on Oklahoma due to the head to head tiebreaker and puts Oklahoma in a tough spot in the conference standings. On the other hand an Oklahoma win puts the Sooners up on the Cyclones by virtue of the tie breaker and still in position to control their own destiny for a spot in the conference championship game. It should all add up to an exciting game in Ames, Saturday night.

In-Game Match-ups To Watch

OC Jimmy Morrissey #67 (Pitt) vs DT Alim McNeill #29 (NC State)

Alim McNeill is the best player on North Carolina State’s defense and it’s not really close. McNeill is strongly built football player who gives little ground at the point of attack, but also has the hands and quickness to get penetration and be disruptive in the backfield. We had him ranked 15th among defensive tackles coming into the season and he has played well so far with five tackles, two tackles for loss and a fumble forced in two games. He will be battling Pittsburgh’s Jimmy Morrissey who was the 15th ranked interior offensive lineman in our rankings. Morrissey is a blue collar type player who has worked his way from walk on to all conference performer, he won’t take plays off and he won’t be outworked. It will be fun to see a battle on the interior between two good players who should go head to head a lot in this game.

OT Christian Darrisaw #77 (Virginia Tech) vs DE Chris Rumph #96 (Duke)

Duke’s Chris Rumph has been in a few of these spots this year going against top tackles. On Saturday, Rumph will face the best tackle he has seen this season. Christian Darrisaw is ranked 12th on our list of offensive tackles and is a powerful blocker on the Virginia Tech line. Darrisaw is not the longest tackle, but he has the punch and feet to play on the quarterback’s behind side. Rumph (#16 DE in our rankings) is a bit on the lighter side but is tough at the point of attack and quick on the perimeter. Duke may choose to move him around some, but he and Darrisaw will see plenty of each other on Saturday. The best time to evaluate players is when they go head to head with other good players, making this an excellent opportunity to find out how good both of these players are.

RB Jerrion Ealy #9 (Mississippi) vs Kentucky‘s Run Defense

We have Jerrion Ealy ranked as the #4 RB in the country, largely based on his potential and physical tools. He is an explosive athlete with big play ability who we expect big things from this year. He had a solid performance in the season opener with 79 yards rushing and 44 yards receiving and a touchdown against Florida, but he is capable of more. The Kentucky run defense was stout against Auburn, holding the Tigers to 91 yards on 30 carries, an average of 3 yards per carry. The Wildcats return a ton of talent from last year’s defense and have gotten off to a good start defending the run. It’s always fun to watch a talented running back take on a defense that defends the run well. We will get a good idea how good Ealy is, and just how strong the Kentucky run defense is on Saturday.

Final Thoughts

October is usually the month when the contenders begin to separate themselves from the pretenders. That will start to happen in the ACC and the Big 12 but the SEC is still just starting up this season. We had two big upsets this past weekend, there will likely be a few more this weekend. We will be back after the games have ended to recap the weekend that was.

For a full list of the games on TV this weekend click here.

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