Game To Watch: #4 Ohio State at #14 Northwestern: December 19, 2020

Ohio State and Northwestern will play one another for the Big Ten Championship this Saturday at 12:00 EST in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes are 5 – 0 but have had three games cancelled due to Covid. Nebraska scored first in the opener but Ohio State tied the game at the 8:04 mark in the 1st quarter and has not trailed in a game since. The Wildcats are 6 – 1 and bounced back from their only loss of the season against Michigan State with a solid 28 – 10 win over Illinois last week. Ohio State will be in the playoff with a win and Northwestern could have an argument if they get the win as well.

Recent History

These teams met in the Big Ten Championship game in 2018, a game the Buckeyes won comfortably 45 – 24 behind a strong performance by Dwayne Haskins. Last year the Buckeyes dominated Northwestern en route to a 52 – 3 win in Evanston. Ohio State has won eight straight against Northwestern, with the Wildcats last win coming in 2004, which was their first since 1971. Ohio State has dominated the recent history between the two teams, a trend Northwestern will look to flip in 2020.

Top 25 Players

What To Watch For…

Can Northwestern force Justin Fields into mistakes?

Ohio State’s Justin Fields is as good a quarterback as there is in college football. The star junior has completed 78.1 percent of his passes for 1,407 yards and 15 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. Fields has also run for 239 yards and 5 touchdowns in the Buckeyes five games this season. All three of those interceptions came against Indiana. The Hoosiers were able to pressure and confuse Fields and the star quarterback played his worst game of the season (18/30 300 yards, 2 TD, 3 Int, 78 rushing yards & 1 TD). Northwestern will have to force Fields into similar mistakes to have a chance to keep pace with Ohio State on Saturday. The Northwestern defense has forced 16 turnovers in 7 games this season and has held 6 of 7 opponents to 20 points or less this year. Safety Brandon Joseph has five interceptions by himself and the Wildcats, as a team, have intercepted 12 passes and allowed just 7 passing touchdowns this year. They limit big plays and are opportunistic in capitalizing on the opposition’s mistakes. Pat Fitzgerald’s team will need to make several big plays on defense Saturday to have a chance to win against Ohio State.

Who will step up for the Wildcats on offense?

Ohio State’s defense has been excellent defending the run this year, but has struggled at times against the pass. The Buckeyes allow just 3.4 yards per carry and have held three of their five opponents under 100 yards rushing, including a -1 rushing yard allowed performance against Indiana. The pass defense has been less consistent, allowing 491 yards passing against Indiana, a majority of which came in the second half. The Buckeyes also allowed 281 passing yards against Penn State, most of those also came in the second half. Even against Rutgers and Michigan State the pass defense was not as good in the second half. Northwestern will look to attack the Ohio State pass defense to see if they can exploit the same weaknesses. The problem for the Wildcats is they do not have a big passing offense. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey has not thrown for over 250 yards in any game this season and only averages 5.8 yards per attempt. The Wildcats also do not have a player that has gone over 100 yards receiving in a game this year. On the ground, two freshmen, Evan Hull and Cam Porter ran for over 100 yards against Illinois, but that was the first time this season either has seen extensive action. The Wildcats will need offensive players to step up and play better than they have all season to keep pace with the Ohio State offense.

Will Ohio State’s weapons be able to make big plays?

The Wildcats defense has been the strength of the team in 2020. They have not only made big plays of their own but they have limited the big plays they allow their opponents to make in a game. Northwestern is first in the Big Ten in scoring defense allowing just 14.6 points per game. They have the second best pass defense in the Big Ten (192 ypg) and the fourth best run defense in the Big Ten (121.9 ypg). They do not allow big plays and frustrate the opposing offense with their sound play, forcing mistakes when teams press and try to do too much. Ohio State is one of the most explosive teams in all of college football. The Buckeyes have two big play receivers in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Both players have had four 100 yard receiving games each in the Buckeyes five games this season. On the ground, the Buckeyes have run for over 200 yards in every game this season and receive significant contributions from running backs Trey Sermon and Master Teague as well as Justin Fields himself. Ohio State will want to get their big play weapons in space and allow them to make big plays, if they succeed it will be tough for Northwestern to keep up.

Prediction

Northwestern’s defense will test Ohio State’s patience. The Wildcats are a well coached team that will not be easy to pull out of position. It may take some time, but eventually the Buckeyes talent at the skill positions will allow them to win match-ups and make big plays. On the other hand, Northwestern’s offense does not have the fire power to test the Ohio State defense. Northwestern will game plan a few wrinkles and hit a couple of big plays but they will not be able to score enough to keep up with the Buckeyes. Ohio State 42 Northwestern 17.

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