5 Players picked too high in the NFL Draft

At CFBSaturdays, we use the NFL Draft as an objective measure to formulate our Position U Rankings.  That doesn’t necessarily mean we agree with the draft positions of several players taken by NFL GMs.  GMs make mistakes all the time, hence the lack of job security. Here are five players we think were taken too high in the 2020 NFL Draft.

QB Justin Herbert, Oregon – Round 1, Pick 6

Herbert came into the 2019 season with a lot of NFL hype but had a relatively underwhelming season.  The Ducks did breakthrough as a team to win the Rose Bowl but a closer look at Herbert’s performances against his toughest competition raises concerns about his NFL future.  In 2019, Herbert averaged 247.9 yards per game and 8.1 yards per attempt, but against Utah (#2 in Total Defense), Wisconsin (#4), Auburn (#28), Washington (#35), and California (#65) those numbers dropped to 213.4 YPG and 6.84 YPA.  Sure Herbert’s receiving corps wasn’t groundbreaking but his offensive line was elite. There’s always going to be some dropoff when the competition level increases, but a franchise QB should still be able to produce in big games.

CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson – Round 1, Pick 16

Terrell was a standout for the Clemson Tigers having started since his sophomore season.  He was named First Team All-ACC in his final season as a Junior and has good size and speed as verified at the NFL Combine.  However, on film he struggled with NFL caliber receivers in the CFP Playoff against Ohio State and LSU.  Jamar Chase in particular made several plays against Terrell. His tendency to grab and inconsistent willingness to tackle will limit his ceiling in the NFL.  Terrell can be a starter in the league, but players being drafted this high in the draft should be difference makers.

OT Austin Jackson, USC – Round 1, Pick 19

Jackson has a lot of tools NFL teams covet which is probably why the Dolphins selected him here, but he also has to improve his strength and technique before making an impact in the NFL.  Draft experts had him ranked anywhere from 20^th to 115^th depending on where you look.  Make no mistake Jackson has a high ceiling, and he very well may reach that ceiling, but high ceiling guys with a lot of work left to do are just as likely to fall short of that ceiling.  To that point in a matchup of 2020 draft picks 2nd Rounder AJ Epenesa had a field day against Jackson in the Holiday Bowl. The Dolphins have a plethora of other roster holes to fill, and prospects with more likely projections were available at this point in the draft.  The NFL draft is all about value, selecting a developmental prospect this far above where you could have drafted him later is a reach.   

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU – Round 1, Pick 32

Edwards-Helaire was the top back for the National Champion LSU Tigers this past season and produced over 1,800 yards from scrimmage in LSU’s pass happy offense.  The Chiefs drafted him at the end of the 1st round in hopes of adding another versatile threat for Patrick Mahomes. This seems logical but making Edwards-Helaire the first RB off the board was a reach.  His limited size (5’7″ 206 lbs) and lack of elite speed (4.6 40 at the NFL combine) are less than ideal numbers.  Edwards-Helaire has talent, but there were several other running backs with more skill and athleticism taken after him (Players like De’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers).  Any way you slice it, there just isn’t enough value and upside for this pick to receive our blessing.

QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma – Round 2, Pick 21

The Eagles selection of Hurts was a big shock on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.  Hurts was a starter for Alabama before being replaced by Tua Tagovailoa in the 2017 National Championship Game. He transfered to Oklahoma and enjoyed a strong senior campaign leading the Sooners to the College Football Playoff.  Hurts has been considered an excellent teammate and great locker-room personality at both programs, however, his well-chronicled limitations as a passer and the Eagles need to build a team around franchise QB Carson Wentz place him on this list.  Hurts was graded outside the top 100 prospects for the draft by several experts and outside the top 60 just about everywhere.  The value was already not there but when you add in that the Eagles already have their franchise QB in Carson Wentz and the team around him has plenty of holes to plug.  Sure, Hurts is a good teamate and a likeable guy but this was a major reach, even after the Eagles picked Hurts the next QB did not come off the board until the 4th Round.

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