What We Are Watching In College Football: September 26, 2020 Weekend

Each week we will provide a preview of the upcoming college football weekend. This weekend the SEC joins the action and adds some extra firepower to the schedule. There are a several games and match-ups to keep an eye on so without further ado here is what we are focused on this weekend.

The Games We Will Focus On

Kentucky at Auburn (Sat 12:00 PM, SECN)

We have seen some strange season openers this year with the odd off-season. Unfortunately for Kentucky and Auburn they don’t have time to work through the kinks, they play a quality opponent right off the bat. Auburn is coming off a 9 – 4 season in which they started a freshman quarterback all season. Kentucky was 8 – 5 last season but lost their starting quarterback early in the season and had to adjust on the fly. Both teams have increased expectations this year and will attempt to kickoff the season with a victory Saturday.

Offensively, Kentucky returns a strong offensive line that had two tackles and two interior linemen ranked among the best at their position in our pre-season rankings. The line will be asked to open up holes for a stable of running backs that returns intact from last year. Most importantly, the talented offensive line will be charged with protecting quarterback Terry Wilson, who looks to pick up where he left off a year ago. When he is at his best, Wilson is a dangerous quarterback who can beat a defense with his scrambling ability and his passing. Kentucky did not throw the ball much last year with Wilson out, so the receivers are relatively unproven. Kentucky will be counting on their excellent offensive line to power the running game and allow Wilson the time to get comfortable with his receivers.

Auburn’s defensive line lost a lot of talent from last season, both Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown were both high NFL draft picks and leave behind a void up front for the Tigers. We have high hopes for buck defensive end Derrick Hall in his second season, but the defensive line will need players to step up in 2020. Big Kat Bryant and Tyrone Truesdell are seniors who return some experience up front and Colby Wooden is a second year defensive tackle who has a lot of potential. Auburn’s new look defensive front will be tested right out of the gates this year against the quality Kentucky offensive line. If they need to bring extra players into the box to stop the Wildcats running attack or to get pressure on the quarterback, that will make it easier for Kentucky to establish their passing game. Almost all football games are won in the trenches, Auburn will need their defensive front to be up to the challenge Saturday.

Offensively, the TIgers return quarterback Bo Nix with a season of experience under his belt. Nix was baptized by fire in 2019 and though the results weren’t stellar, the young quarterback showed he is a fierce competitor and improved as the season wore on. He did not throw an interception in the last five games of the season and completed over 60 percent of his passes in four of the five (50% against Alabama). Nix will need to continue to progress but he is a capable passer and a tough runner who finds a way to lead his team to victory. He returns his top three receivers from last season and will welcome star freshman running back, Tank Bigsby to the offense. The offensive line returns little experience up front, with only two starters having started before and only a total of 34 career starts as a unit. Nix will have to take the next step in his progression this season, but will need his offensive line to be able to provide protection up front.

Kentucky on the other hand returns a wealth of experience at all levels of the defense. The defense returns 7 starters from a year ago and has talent and depth at all three levels. The defensive line returns defensive end Josh Paschal and linebacker/edge rusher Jamar Watson. Kentucky did lose Chris Oates to illness but still has a deep group of linebackers who should shine behind the stout defensive line. The secondary returns a lot of experience and adds a key newcomer in cornerback Kelvin Joseph, the transfer from LSU has received rave reviews this camp and is an exciting prospect on the perimeter for the Wildcats. The Auburn offensive line will have to play well to open up running lanes and protect Nix against the Wildcats, we are not sure the line is ready for the challenge that awaits them Saturday. If they do not play well, Nix and the skill talent will be fighting an uphill battle all afternoon.

Both teams are looking to build on solid performances last season, especially down the stretch run. The SEC did not give Auburn and Kentucky a warm up week as they are both good teams, but this does give the viewers a treat in the noon slot on Saturday. We expect this to be a tightly contested matchup this weekend.

Army at Cincinnati (Sat 3:30 PM, ESPN)

Army was supposed to play BYU last weekend but instead had a bye week because BYU was forced to cancel the game due to Covid. Cincinnati opened their 2020 season last weekend with a blowout victory against over-matched Austin Peay. The Black Knights played well the first two games of the season and should be ready for a big test against a good Cincinnati team this weekend.

Army, like the other service academies, runs a triple option based offense and focuses on staying on schedule and forcing the defense to stay disciplined every play. Through two games the offense has averaged 6.1 yards per carry on their way to 389.5 rushing yards per game. Fullbacks, Sandon McCoy (4 TD) and Jacobi Buchanan (7 yard per carry, 2 TD), have been powerful runners up the middle softening up the defense. Quarterback, Christian Anderson (4.8 yards per carry, 3 rushing TD) has been the steady and consistent leader for the offense and running back Tyrell Robinson (10 yards per carry) has provided the speed on the perimeter. Army dominated Middle Tennessee State and ULM in back to back weeks before the surprise off week, but will face a tougher test from Cincinnati on Saturday.

The Bearcats defense is big step up in talent from Middle Tennessee State and ULM, they have better athletes across the board and will be better equipped to defend Army’s offensive attack. The defense has been ranked top 25 in scoring defense the last two seasons and has been a strength for the team in Luke Fickell’s tenure. Cincinnati has some experience defending the triple option offense as they play in the same conference as Navy, but did not play the Midshipmen last year, though they did in 2017 and 2018. Senior safety James Wiggins is a leader on the Bearcats defense and one of the best at his position in the country, he will play a key role in slowing down the Army offense this Saturday. If Cincinnati can stay disciplined and stick to their assignments, which is easier said than done, they have the talent to limit the Army attack.

Desmond Ridder leads the Cincinnati offense and has a solid season as a sophomore in 2019. He needed to be more consistent and eliminate the turnovers that were setting the offense back. Albeit against Austin Peay, Ridder was efficient as a passer and runner in the season opener averaging over 10 yards per attempt and not throwing any interceptions. The running back and receiver position are breaking in a new group of contributors this season with Alex Pierce the only returning starter at the skill positions. The offensive line is another story, Cincinnati returns four starters up front who made a combined 40 starts in 2019. With an emerging quarterback and an experienced offensive line the Bearcats offense should be formidable in 2020, but the Army defense has been stout so far as well.

Just looking at the numbers, Army’s defense has been phenomenal in 2020. They are allowing a mere 3.5 points per game and 4.2 yards per play, ranking fourth in both scoring defense and total defense. Obviously, those performances came against Middle Tennessee State and ULM, neither of which is on Cincinnati’s level. While the competition was not good, the defense very much was. An offense can score a ridiculous number of points all a defense can do is hold you at or close to zero. Army allowed one score in eight quarters this year, they have forced six turnovers during that stretch and allowed only 11 first downs per game. Sure the defense will face a tougher test on Saturday, but they test the Cincinnati offense as well.

Luke Fickell’s team has won 11 games in back to back seasons and will look to have another strong season in 2020, but Army has been a formidable team under Jeff Monken winning 11 games in 2018, and despite a bad season his team pushed Michigan to the limit in 2019. This should be a good measuring stick game for both teams early in the season.

Florida State at Miami (Sat 7:30 PM ABC)

On the surface this is a match-up of two teams going in opposite directions so far this season. Miami is 2 – 0 and riding high coming off a good win at Louisville. While Florida State dropped their opener at home against Georgia Tech and will be without head coach Mike Norvell who tested positive for Covid, a rivalry game is still a rivalry game. Florida State will give Miami their best shot and there are plenty of talented athletes on this Seminoles team.

The Hurricanes are coming off a big road win over Louisville in which quarterback D’Eriq King was masterful. King threw the ball with precision all night, finding his tight ends, running backs and receivers for big gains. Brevin Jordan had a big game against Louisville and is making his case for the best tight end in the country. King and Jordan provide plenty of star power, but the Hurricanes have additional talented options at running back and receiver as well. The offense has been a strength for the Hurricanes, who are averaging over 7 yards per play so far this season. King has been the catalyst but the team has gotten contributions from several players this year and have a diverse offensive attack. Florida State’s defense will have to disrupt King’s rhythm and timing to slow down the Hurricanes attack.

The Seminoles have a talented defensive line which features the best defensive tackle in the country, Marvin Wilson. Wilson is joined by fellow defensive tackle Cory Durden, who also made our top 25 list. Wilson and Durden lead a talented defensive line with many disruptive players in the position group. Linebacker Amari Gainer is a young player with a bright future who is also an excellent pass rusher. The Seminoles will need their defensive front to pressure King and disrupt the rhythm of the Miami offense. If they can throw off the timing of the Miami offense, the playmakers in the secondary like Asante Samuel Jr can make plays and create opportunities for the Florida State offense. The Seminoles have good individual talents on defense, they will need to play well as a unit to win the battle against the Miami offense, and that hasn’t always happened for the Seminoles.

Florida State’s offense struggled mightily against Georgia Tech in the season opener. The Seminoles managed just 13 points and only 3.8 yards per play. There was a litany of issues that led to the poor performance but the sub par play of the offensive line was the main culprit. Quarterback James Blackman was under pressure most of the game and there was little room for the running game to establish any sort of rhythm. The same Georgia Tech defense that shutdown Florida State two weeks ago, gave up 49 points to UCF this past weekend. Florida State has some speed and ability at the skill positions but it does little good if the quarterback does not have the time to get them the ball. The Seminoles will need better play from the offensive line to give their offense a chance on Saturday.

Miami plays a pressure based defense that aims to create negative plays and knock the offense off schedule. They have made 18 tackles for loss in the first two games of the season. Defensive end, Quincy Roche, leads a good group of defensive linemen that have been creating penetration in the backfield this season. The Hurricanes defensive line is an athletic group that gets up field quickly and is able to generate pressure on the quarterback. The extra attention the defensive line gets allows the linebackers to attack the football and make plays. In the secondary, safety Bubba Bolden and cornerback Al Blades Jr have been playing well early this season. The defense may have given up 34 points against Louisville, but they did a good job slowing the Cardinals down when the game was still in the balance.

Miami is looking to get to 3 – 0 and continue to build momentum behind their star quarterback. Florida State would love to derail their rivals successful season and capture some momentum themselves. On paper it looks like Miami should win comfortably, but rivalry games are another animal, the Seminoles will be motivated Saturday night.

Troy at BYU (Sat 10:15 PM ESPN)

With the slimmed down football schedule the past couple weeks, there hasn’t been much on the slate in the late night slots. This weekend we have a good nightcap on the schedule as Troy and BYU square off in what should be good game between two teams who have played well so far this year. Troy is coming off a 47 – 14 win over Middle Tennessee State this weekend and BYU was a team that impressed two weeks ago in a 55 – 3 rout of Navy.

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson showed flashes as a freshmen but had too many turnovers for the team to be successful. In the season opener we saw a more mature and poised Wilson, who took what the defense gave him and ran the offense efficiently. That was also on a night when the running game was absolutely dominant playing against a Navy team that had not practiced live tackling once during camp. The question remains, if the BYU running game struggles and the game is on Wilson’s shoulders, will we see Zack Wilson from a year ago or the new poised leader we saw on Labor Day? If Troy wants to find out they will have to slow down a BYU running game that averaged over six yards per carry en route to a 301 yard performance on the ground against Navy.

Middle Tennessee State is not BYU, but it’s the only data point we have for Troy’s defense so far this season. Troy’s defense was excellent in the season opener allowing only 3.9 yards per play for the game and only 3.1 yards per carry against the run. The defense played well as a unit limiting the big plays and tackling well to stymie the Middle Tennessee State offense. The Troy defense is a young unit with only two seniors listed as starters (one of them is a co-starter) and should continue to progress as the season moves forward. The defense is led by LB Carlton Martial (#8 LB) who is a bit undersized but makes a lot of plays. The Trojans were successful against the run in their opener and will look to follow a similar blueprint against a powerful BYU running game. Then we will find out if Troy can force Wilson into mistakes in the passing game or if Wilson has truly matured in his second year as a starter.

Troy’s offense was playing uptempo in the opener and ran a whopping 93 plays for 496 yards. The offense was fast and diverse gaining 240 yards on the ground and 256 through the air. No one player had over 100 yards rushing or receiving but instead 10 different players caught passes and 8 different players had at least one carry in the game. When the offense is moving fast and the ball is being distributed to a number of players it makes it difficult for the defense to keep up and leads to fatigue and mistakes. The Trojans will look to get their tempo going against BYU and wear down the Cougars defense with their diverse offensive attack.

BYU’s defense was as dominant as their offense in the season opener, but defending the triple option is different than defending an uptempo spread offense. There is not a lot you can take away from the performance against Navy and apply to this game against the Troy offense, except that BYU tackled well and was sound in their assignments. Navy does not attempt to throw the football very often so it’s difficult to gauge how good your pass defense is. In 2019, BYU’s defense was ranked 48th in scoring defense and was middle of the pack against both the pass and the run. The Cougars returned a wealth of talent from that 2019 defense and we expect they are a better unit than they were a year ago. Troy will be our first chance to see them against a more modern college offense and we look forward to seeing how BYU’s defense performs.

Both BYU and Troy won their season openers in convincing fashion. Saturday night we will get a better sense of how good both teams actually are. Troy is trying to build momentum as they head into their conference schedule in what appears to be a competitive Sun Belt Conference this year. On the other hand, BYU’s schedule this year does not have many tough games on it right now, so a win Saturday night could propel them toward an undefeated season.

In-Game Match-ups To Watch

OG Josh Sills #72 (Oklahoma State) vs DT Darius Stills #56 and DT Dante Stills #55 (West Virginia)

Josh Sills transferred from West Virginia to Oklahoma State this off-season and is expected to be a key player up front for the Cowboys. Sills is a powerful interior blocker who is athletic enough to handle defensive tackles in pass protection. Saturday Sills will be squaring off with his former teammates Darius and Dante Stills. The brothers are one of the best defensive tackle combinations in college football with both of them ranking among our top 10 at the position. Darius and Dante must be licking their chops after watching Tulsa’s defense tally 14 tackles for loss against the Oklahoma State offense on Saturday. If the Cowboys offense is going to be successful, West Virginia cannot come close to that many tackles for loss. Josh Sills will need to limit the effectiveness of his former teammates and help sure up the interior of the Oklahoma State offensive line. We will be keying in when Darius and Dante are lined up across from Sills and keeping close tabs on who is winning the battles between former teammates.

Tutu Atwell #1 (Louisville) vs DB Damar Hamlin #3 and S Paris Ford #12 (Pitt)

Tutu Atwell is an electric playmaker at receiver for Louisville ranking in the top 10 in our initial rankings. Atwell may not be very big but he is fast and explosive, with the ability to make defenders miss in space and turn any play into a big play. While the Cardinals will move him around the formation to find favorable match-ups he will undoubtedly end up across from Damar Hamlin and Paris Ford many times Saturday. Hamlin is listed among the top cornerbacks in our rankings, but he could just as easily have been ranked as a safety. Ford is one of the top safeties in the country and is off to a good start this season with two interceptions in his first two games. Pat Narduzzi’s defensive scheme will ask Hamlin and Ford to play man coverage against Atwell during this game and their ability to do so will be key in slowing down the Louisville offense.

QB Brock Purdy #15 (Iowa State) vs S Trevon Moehrig #7 and S Ar’Darius Washington #24 (TCU)

We ranked Brock Purdy as one of the best quarterbacks in the country coming into this season (#10 QB). His performance in the season opener did not live up to that ranking or the standard Purdy has set for himself over the course of his career. The game against Louisiana was probably the worst performance of Purdy’s career, he averaged a career low 4.1 yards per attempt and had a career low passer rating of 74.8. This was the first time his passer rating dipped below 100 since 2018 against Texas in his first year starting. Purdy is the driver of the Cyclones offense, his play will determine what the offense can do on Saturday. Iowa State needs Brock Purdy to bounce back and play like the quarterback that threw for nearly 4,000 yards a year ago.

That won’t be easy on Saturday playing against a TCU defense that features two of the best safeties in the country. Trevon Moehrig is among the best in the country, excelling in man coverage or as an over the top defender. Ar’Darius Washington checks in at #10 on our list and is an up and coming safety in his own right. The Horned Frogs will utilize their safeties in a variety of ways to attempt to confuse and frustrate Purdy. Moehrig’s versatility and ability to excel in different roles will allow the defense to change looks and be more diverse. Washington has excellent anticipation and a knack for finding the football against the passing game or when playing the run. He reacts to offensive plays very well and can create headaches for opposing quarterbacks as he closes would be passing windows. Moehrig and Washington will do their best to make sure Purdy does not get back on track this weekend, we are intrigued to see who can impose their will on the game and win this match-up.

Final Thoughts

With the SEC joining the fray this weekend will feel a little more like a regular Saturday watching college football. There are multiple games scheduled throughout the day and we can jump back and forth during commercials again. We will get out first look at the SEC teams this weekend, and hopefully start to get some clarity on who the contenders are in the ACC, AAC and Big 12 We will be back after the games have ended to recap the weekend that was.

For a full list of the games on TV this weekend click here.

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