What We Are Watching In College Football: October 31, 2020 Weekend

Each week we will provide a preview of the upcoming college football weekend. Postponements and cancellations are a weekly occurrence, but with most of the country in action there is still plenty to watch this weekend. There are several games and match-ups to keep an eye on so without further ado here is what we are focused on this weekend. (For a recap of last weekend, click here)

The Games We Will Focus On

Memphis at Cincinnati (Sat 12:00 PM, ESPN)

Cincinnati just blew out SMU 42 – 13, stymieing the Mustangs offense en route to a big win. The defense will need to get ready for another big test as Memphis comes to town riding a two game win streak behind their high powered offense. For the second week in a row the Bearcats defense will have to take on a high scoring offense in a critical conference game.

Cincinnati’s defense held an SMU offense that was averaging 42 points per game to just 13 points last weekend. They frustrated the Mustangs in every way limiting them to 1.9 yards per carry on the ground and just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. They will look to repeat that success against another explosive offense this weekend. Cincinnati has stars at every level of the defense that can make plays. Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant are as good of a cornerback tandem as their is in the conference. The duo has combined for six pass break ups and five interceptions through four games this season. Jarell White had another big game at linebacker and now has 44 tackles with 5.5 tackles for loss in just four games. Marcus Brown picked up two tackles for loss and a sack last week as the defensive tackle was able to get in the backfield a few times and help star defensive end Myjai Sanders up front. Cincinnati has the most talented defense in the conference, but that defense will be challenged again this Saturday by a high powered offense.

Memphis has a high scoring offense that is currently averaging 38.8 points per game behind star quarterback Brady White (#15 QB in our rankings). He is a polished and accurate passer who is in his third year as the starter for Memphis. White leads one of the best and most diverse passing attacks in the country, with five receivers averaging over 40 yards per game. Diminutive junior receiver Calvin Austin III is the top receiver this season, with 424 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Austin is a shifty athlete with home-run speed, who gets open effortlessly and is dangerous after the catch. Memphis’ passing game is the strength of the offense, but the running game has been productive as well. Rodrigues Clark and Kylan Watkins have both been effective averaging an identical 5.3 yards per carry and combining for 650 rushing yards. The Tigers put pressure on the best of defenses with their diverse attack, scoring 27 points or more in each of their four games this season.

On defense the Tigers have had their struggles, allowing 33 points per game while allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt. The run defense has been better than the pass defense, holding opponents to just 3.6 yards per carry. The Tigers count on senior defensive tackle O’Bryan Goodson to lead the way on the defensive line. He has been unblockable so far this season, tallying 19 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, including 4 sacks, and forcing two fumbles in the process. Goodson recently moved up to #25 in our defensive tackle rankings, thanks to his strong start to the season. Despite Goodson’s impact up front the pass defense has been suspect for the TIgers. Memphis ranks dead last in the country with over 440 passing yards allowed per game, though a lot of the damage was done in one game against UCF (601 yards). Even still, Memphis has allowed 474 passing yards to SMU and 387 passing yards against Temple, so this is hardly a one game issue. Cincinnati does not have a dynamic passing attack but they will look for openings in the Tigers pass defense to take advantage of on Saturday.

Cincinnati had it’s best offensive showing of the season (we’re not counting Austin Peay) against SMU last week. The Bearcats scored 42 points behind the strong running of quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Gerrid Doaks. Ridder made several explosive runs and finished the game with 179 rushing yards on 8 carries and 3 touchdowns. Doaks was the workhorse in the backfield, carrying the ball 20 times en route to his second straight 100 yard game (105 yards). Ridder and Doaks give the Bearcats a dangerous 1 – 2 punch in the backfield on the ground, but the passing game has lagged behind the rushing attack. The Bearcats average less than 200 yards per game passing and did not get close to that number against Memphis. For all his success running the ball, Ridder continues to be inconsistent as a passer. The Memphis pass defense has been porous all season so Ridder and his receivers should be able to make some big plays on Saturday, but we will need to see it to believe it.

Cincinnati picked up a big win last weekend but that was step one on the road to a conference title. Beating Memphis will give Cincinnati two key tie breakers and keep the undefeated season alive. Memphis already has a conference loss against SMU on their record so a second loss would really set them back going into the second half of their season. Expect a close game to kickoff the day Saturday as one of the best offenses in the country goes against one of the top defenses.

Texas at Oklahoma State (3:30 PM, Fox)

Oklahoma State set themselves up in the Big 12 with a hard fought win against Iowa State. They are still undefeated and are the conference’s best and possibly only chance to make the College Football Playoff. Texas has to have a lot go their way to make the conference championship game but cannot afford another loss.

Oklahoma State played a full game with starting quarterback Spencer Sanders for the first time this season. Sanders made big plays but also had a few miscues, throwing two interception in the game. The turnovers are an issue that has plagued Sanders in the past, though one game is hardly enough of a sample to say this will be a trend going forward. Sanders also made explosive plays as a runner and passer, showing the dual threat ability Texas will have to prepare for. With Chuba Hubbard (#3 RB in our rankings) in the backfield and Tylan Wallace (#4 WR in our rankings) on the outside, the Cowboys can hurt the defense in a variety of ways. The offense stalled a few times against Iowa State but played well overall totaling 461 yards of offense with 235 passing and 226 on the ground. The balanced offense will be a challenge for a Texas defense that has struggled in a few games this season.

Texas’ defense has struggled at times this season but has played better recently. They held Baylor to 16 points last week, though the Bears are not one of the better offensive teams in the Big 12. Texas struggled over a three game stretch against Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma before their bye week, this week will be a better indicator of any progress the Longhorns have made. Linebacker Joseph Ossai has been able to get penetration off the edge and make plays in the backfield recording 6.5 tackles for loss this season. Despite Ossai’s success the Texas defense has only totaled seven sacks in five games this season. The Longhorns need to get home more with their pass rush to put the opposing offense behind schedule. The lack of a consistent pass rush has led to big plays that have victimized the defense. Oklahoma State has the playmakers to make big plays and test whether or not the Longhorn’s defense has truly turned the corner or if they just beat up on a weak Baylor offense.

Texas’ offense has been lighting up the scoreboard this year to the tune of 45 points per game. Most of that success has come on the arm and legs of quarterback Sam Ehlinger. He leads the team with 293 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, while also throwing for 1,481 yards and 17 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. While the numbers are huge, there have been some bumps in the road for Ehlinger. He has been feast or famine far too often in the passing game, making some big plays but also missing too many throws that could extend a drive and maintain possession. The inconsistency played a major role in both of Texas’ losses this season. Ehlinger is an infectious leader who plays with the toughness of a player in the trenches. The running game could get a boost as top recruit Bijan Robinson has seen his touches increase after the bye week. Robinson ran the ball 12 times for 55 yards against Baylor, both season highs for the true freshman. Robinson is the type of talent that could provide a spark and take some of the pressure off Ehlinger’s shoulders. Texas will need to give their quarterback help this week as they face one of the best defenses in the country.

Oklahoma State has been dominant on defense in 2020. The Cowboys are eighth in the country allowing just 12 points per game through their first four games. The defense has gotten a boost from senior linebacker Calvin Bundage who is in the midst of a breakthrough season having made 5 tackles for loss and a career high 3.5 sacks already. He has excelled as a pass rusher who is able to use his burst and speed to get in the backfield. The Cowboys have also gotten good play from sophomore Trace Ford who has also chipped in three sacks and four pass breakups in his second season with the program. The duo of pass rushers has added to a good group of linebackers and safeties that help Oklahoma State lock teams down at the second level. The result is a pass defense that has been a strength for the Cowboys allowing just 176 passing yards per game. The goal Saturday will be to make life difficult for Sam Ehlinger as a passer and limit the explosive plays they give up. It’s a formula that was successful against Brock Purdy and Iowa State last week, the Cowboys will look for a repeat performance this week.

With a win Saturday the Cowboys could effectively eliminate Texas from contention in the Big 12 this year. The Cowboys are in the driver’s seat in the conference but need to remain unbeaten to set themselves up for the College Football Playoff. Texas has to win out to keep their hopes of winning the Big 12 title alive. The Longhorns will give the Cowboys their best shot, it remains to be seen if it’s enough to knock off Oklahoma State.

Ohio State at Penn State (7:30 PM, ABC)

The top two teams in the Big Ten in the preseason polls will face off in the second week of the Big Ten season. Ohio State beat Nebraska convincingly in their season opener 52 – 17. Penn State outplayed Indiana most of the game but made too many mistakes and lost the game 36 – 35 in overtime. Without fans in the stands there won’t be a white out in Happy Valley, which will be an odd sight during a prime time contest between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.

The Ohio State offense is expected to be one of the best in the country. Quarterback Justin Fields is one of the best in the country and looked better than ever in the season opener. He had good command of the offense, made smart decisions and threw the ball very well. Fields would complete 20 of 21 passes for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns and was clearly in sync with his top two receivers. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both had over 100 receiving yards, though Olave left the game with an injury in the second half. His status for this weekend’s game is unknown at this time. The duo is one of the best in the country, while the Buckeyes have young talent at receiver, Wilson and Olave are the key weapons in the passing game. The Buckeyes did not play as well as expected on the offensive line which led to too many sacks and some trouble running the ball effectively. Fields was sacked three times by Nebraska and the running attack averaged just 4.6 yards per carry, down a full yard from their average a year ago. The offensive line has plenty of returning talent and highly rated recruits stepping in, they will need to do a better job against a good Penn State defensive line.

The Penn State defense played much better than the 36 points allowed against Indiana would indicate. They held the Hoosiers to 211 yards of offense on the day, 41 rushing yards and 170 passing yards. The problem was the field position Indiana got off turnovers in the first half. The Hoosiers had a four yard touchdown drive and a 22 yard field goal drive, both of which came on the heels of a Penn State turnover. The Nittany Lions defense had a few plays where they struggled late, but generally played well most of the game. Up front, senior defensive end Shaka Toney led the way with two sacks on Saturday. The veteran pass rusher has been a steady performer over the course of his career and will need to be a leader in the front seven for Penn State. If the defensive front can win the battle against the Ohio State offensive line, they can make the Ohio State offense one dimensional and get after Fields. The secondary features three senior starters, led by cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields (#21 CB in our rankings). Castro-Fields started every game in 2019 and was voted third team All Big Ten by the media. He will be counted on to matchup on one side with one of the Buckeyes’ excellent receivers, allowing the team to scheme help to the other side of the field. Penn State will have to contain Fields and his receivers to stay in the game, that’s a tough task for any defense but Penn State does have talent on the defensive line and experience in the secondary.

Penn State’s offense gained plenty of yardage in their opener against Indiana, but also turned the ball over three times (2 int, 1 fumble). The Nittany Lions were most effective running the ball, especially with the quarterback. Sean Clifford carried the ball 17 times for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. He let the team in rushing yards and may have to again with running backs Journey Brown and Noah Cain possibly out for the season. Devyn Ford was the primary running back but was held to under four yards per carry. Clifford has a star tight end in Pat Freiermuth and a potential big play threat in Jahan Dotson on the outside. Freiermuth is one of the best tight ends in the country and is a threat against any defense in the country. Dotson made a big play last week on a 60 yard touchdown to take the lead in the fourth quarter. He will have to challenge the Ohio State secondary vertically to open up space for everyone else to operate. Penn State’s success with the quarterback run will be important because Ohio State has struggled to defend it recently. If Clifford can make big plays with his feet it should open up the defense for the rest of the offense. Ohio State’s defense will have to do a better job of defending the quarterback as a running threat to contain the Penn State offense.

Ohio State’s defense only gave up 17 points and was not challenged much in the passing game by Nebraska. The Huskers were very conservative in the passing game and did not have big plays through the air. They did gash the Ohio State defense with both quarterbacks running for over 80 yards and over 6 yards a carry each. The Buckeyes did a good job on the running backs holding them to 51 yards on 13 carries. The defensive line needs new stars to emerge quickly and be disruptive in the opposing backfield. One of those stars could be Haskell Garrett, who is lucky to be playing football at all after a scary incident in late August. Garrett was probably the most disruptive defensive lineman for Ohio State against Nebraska and had a sack to show for it. The senior defensive tackle was in the rotation last season as well and was quick and powerful at the point of attack on Saturday. The best series for the Ohio State defense seemed to come when Garrett teamed up with Tommy Togiai inside and Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith were on the edge. Ohio State has to find a rotation that works quickly otherwise Penn State will have a big day running the ball with the quarterback like Nebraska did. Ohio State’s secondary was solid against Nebraska, though they were rarely challenged downfield. Penn State will attempt to work off the run game and use the tight end to open up plays on the outside and attack a fast and talented secondary.

With two of the most talented teams in the conference going head to head this game should be a treat in prime time. Penn State will have to be particularly sharp to pull off the upset because despite how good Penn State is the Buckeyes have one of the best rosters in the country and will be tough to keep up with.

Other Stories To Watch

Kansas State has a tricky game against West Virginia

After a season opening loss against Arkansas State, Kansas State has gotten on a roll, winning four straight conference games. They pulled off a big comeback for an upset win over Oklahoma on the road, then with a true freshman starting at quarterback beat TCU on the road. Chris Klieman’s team has been resilient and showed their character in an unusual and challenging season. The Wildcats are undefeated in conference play and have set themselves up well to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats enter the toughest stretch on their schedule with West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State consecutively on the slate. Undefeated Oklahoma State and a good Iowa State team are looming but the Wildcats have to take care of business against a sound West Virginia team this weekend first.

West Virginia is coming off a 34 – 27 loss to Texas Tech but has been competitive in every game they have played this season. The Mountaineers are 3 – 2, with the seven point loss to Texas Tech and a 27 – 13 loss to Oklahoma State earlier in the year. West Virginia has played good defense this season, allowing 21.8 points per game. The defense has been particularly tough against the run, limiting opponents to 3.1 yards per carry on the ground. The defensive line has a pair of talented defensive tackles in Darius and Dante Stills, who both rank in the top 5 at the position in our rankings. The Mountaineers have also gotten strong play from true freshman defensive end Akheem Mesidor, who is an emerging pass rusher. West Virginia is a good defensive team in a tough spot on the schedule for the Wildcats. Chris Klieman has done a good job of keeping his team focused on one game at a time, that focus will be crucial this weekend as Kansas State cannot afford to overlook West Virginia.

LSU and Auburn both in a “must win” situation

Both LSU and Auburn have had trouble getting on a roll this season. LSU has had to rebuild the roster after several key players opted out before the season began. Rushing players into larger roles has contributed to the unexpected losses against Mississippi State and Missouri and has the team sitting at 2 – 2 going into this weekend’s game against Auburn. With Alabama, Texas A&M and Florida still on the schedule LSU cannot afford to slip up again or they risk having a losing record for the first time since 1999, Gerry DiNardo’s last season in Baton Rouge.

Auburn is 3 -2 but their road is no easier down the stretch, the last three games of the season are against Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M. These Tigers last suffered a losing season in 2012, which was Gene Chisek’s last with the program (interestingly it came just two seasons after a National Championship). Gus Malzahn was hired to replace Chisek in 2013, but with a losing season could be facing the same fate as his predecessor. Auburn has already lost a disappointing game to South Carolina this season, losing any wiggle room they may have had in the process.

The loser of this game is likely to have a losing season in 2020. That’s an unacceptable result for both of these programs. The strange circumstances around the 2020 season may help the coaches explain away some of the struggles but losing seasons do not sit well with these programs. Ed Orgeron has the benefit of a national championship last year and will get a little extra leeway, but Gus Malzahn is not likely to survive a losing season in 2020.

Northwestern, Iowa and the Big Ten West

With Wisconsin out of commission due to a Covid outbreak (The Big Ten’s poor planning doesn’t help) and Minnesota’s defense playing terrible in their season opener the Big Ten West appears to be wide open for the taking. Saturday we will find out if Northwestern or Iowa are ready to contend in the division.

Northwestern was impressive in a 45 – 3 demolishing of Maryland behind transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey. Maryland is hardly a big test, they may in fact be the worst team in the Big Ten this season, but Northwestern did what they needed to do. The schedule sets up well for the Wildcats with their other crossover game against a rebuilding Michigan State program. The Wildcats avoid the toughest teams in the Big Ten East this season, giving them an easier path to the division title. Iowa’s defense will be a better test for the new Northwestern quarterback and the new offensive system put in by first year coordinator Mike Bajakian. The Hawkeyes will provide a true test for Northwestern and a win would mean the Wildcats are legitimate contenders in the Big Ten West this season.

Iowa did not have the luxury of playing Maryland to start the season. They played at Purdue and came up just short in a hard fought game that ended in a 24 – 20 loss. Kirk Ferentz is breaking in a new quarterback, Spencer Petras, this season which is hardly ideal with the way the off-season has been. The sophomore signal caller has good size and a strong arm, but lacks experience. He had a solid outing in his first game of the season but will need to play better for Iowa to compete for a division title. In his time at Iowa, Ferentz teams have shown the ability to progress quickly in season, as the team improves they could be good enough to win the division, but that won’t happen if they fall to 0 – 2 this Saturday. The Big Ten West title is within reach but Iowa has to win Saturday to have a chance to capitalize on the uncertainty in the division.

Final Thoughts

The Playoff picture is becoming clear with some of the usual players looking strong, Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State and some newcomers threatening to crash the party like Oklahoma State. With the odd schedules across the country this could be the year a group of five team gets consideration with Cincinnati, BYU and Boise State all still undefeated. Strange but exciting times for sure. We will be back after the games have ended to recap the weekend that was.

For a Full List Of The Games On TV This Weekend Click Here.

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ISU vs OSU 2019-10-26 Image by Daniel Hartwig is licensed under CC BY 2.0.