What We Are Watching In College Football: October 24, 2020 Weekend

October 21, 2020 CFB Saturdays Staff

Each week we will provide a preview of the upcoming college football weekend. The Big Ten returns to action this weekend with a full slate of conference games, also back in action this weekend is the Mountain West Conference. The schedule has some meat on it now and should provide plenty of opportunity. There are several games and match-ups to keep an eye on so without further ado here is what we are focused on this weekend. (For a recap of last weekend, click here)

The Games We Will Focus On

Illinois at Wisconsin (Fri 8:00 PM, BTN)

The Big Ten season starts with a Friday night rematch of one of the bigger upsets in the conference a year ago. Illinois beat Wisconsin 24 – 23 in Champaign, kicking off a four game win streak that landed the Illini in a bowl game. It was Wisconsin’s first loss of the season and came the week before their showdown with Ohio State. The Badgers will be looking for revenge this weekend in Madison.

Wisconsin will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who moved on to the NFL after the 2019 season. Wisconsin has a strong tradition of quality running back play and always seems to have the next great running back ready to step in. Nakia Watson and Garrett Groshek will share the responsibility as the co-starters to begin the season, Watson ran for 331 yards last season as a redshirt freshman and Groshek, a senior, was used as a receiver out of the backfield often. Adding to the offensive uncertainty, the 2019 team’s starting quarterback, Jack Coan, is sidelined with a foot injury to start the 2020 season. Graham Mertz, a redshirt freshman, will make the first start of his career, he was 9 of 10 passing for 73 yards last season. Mertz was a highly touted recruit in the 2019 class and has the tools to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, the queston is how far along is he in his development? Fortunately for Mertz, the Badgers offensive line should be a strength. The unit returns two starters, including Cole Van Lanen (#11 OT in our rankings) and features several experienced players who have been developing while waiting their turn in Madison. Wisconsin always seems to have a good offensive line and a strong running game, but if Mertz is ready we expect to see the Badgers open up the offense a bit this year.

The Illinois defense was solid in 2019 ranking 54th in the country in scoring defense. They do return six starters from that unit, but we expect only five of those six to start in 2020. The problem is the entire starting defensive line will be new in 2020. They lost their leading pass rusher in Oluwole Betiku Jr and do not return a player who had more than 3.5 sacks last season. Illinois will have to get a pass rush from their defensive line to be successful on defense. The back seven on the other hand returns six starters and has plenty of experienced players back. We expect one of the cornerback spots to go to Marquez Beason who redshirted last year after injuring his knee but is back and healthy. Beason is an elite talent who will move one of the returning starters to a reserve role and add depth in the secondary. He is an explosive athlete who has excellent coverage skills, we expect him to have a breakthrough season for Illinois in 2020. The defense has the ability to be very good on the back end but will need the new defensive line to play well to reach it’s potential.

Illinois’ offense will be led by senior quarterback Brandon Peters who had a solid first year starting in 2019. The team will need him to take the next step in his second season as the starting quarterback and be a steadying presence for the offense. The Illini return plenty of talent around Peters including four starters on the offensive line who have combined for 125 starts in their career. Sure the opponent this week is known for their offensive line play, but we expect the Illinois offensive line to be very good in 2020 as well. Peters will be well protected and returns his top four receivers from 2019 and adds a potential star at tight end in Luke Ford. The Illinois native transferred back home after one season at Georgia but sat out last year due to transfer rules. Ford was one of the best tight end recruits in the country and has the size and athleticism to be a complete player that is one of the best at the position. Illinois did lose their two leading rushers from last season, but with all of the other talent returning they should be successful while waiting for a new lead back to emerge. Illinois played a lot of younger players the past few seasons under Lovie Smith, they are hoping that experience will pay off in 2020.

Jim Leonhard has been the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin the past three seasons and the results have been very good. The Badgers defense has finished 3rd, 34th and 10th in the country in scoring defense in those three seasons. They will return all of their starters on the defensive line and in the secondary, though a couple of former starters have moved into reserve roles or are listed as co-starters this year. Eric Burrell is the star in the secondary, the versatile safety was ranked #9 in our safety rankings and is the leader of a group that returns all four starters. Two of those starters have been replaced on the season opening depth chart by players who have beaten them out. The biggest turnover for the Badgers comes at linebacker where they lost a pair of leaders in Chris Orr and Zack Baun. Leo Chenal will step in at the inside linebacker spot and we expect him to do very well, but the outside spot vacated by Baun is still up for grabs. With the continuity across the defense Wisconsin will have a strong defense again in 2020, expect them to test just how good Illinois’ offense is this season.

Wisconsin has been a steady contender in the Big Ten West every year and will be out of revenge against the Illini. Illinois finally made progress in 2019 and would love to build on that with another statement win to kickoff their 2020 season. The Badgers should win, but Illinois has some confidence and will not be an easy out for Wisconsin.

Nebraska at Ohio State (Sat 12:00 PM, FOX)

The two teams who fought the hardest to save the Big Ten season, will now battle each other in their first conference game of the season. Nebraska has been rebuilding under Scott Frost and will be looking to show they have improved on last year’s 5 – 7 record. Their first game of the season comes against the Buckeyes who have been the class of the Big Ten and a national power for over a decade now.

Heisman candidate, Justin Fields leads an offense that may be the most talented in the country. Fields is a rare talent who is an excellent passer who can win the game with just his arm, but also has great running ability to make plays when none are available. He is orchestrating an offense that features one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Buckeyes return three starters up front led by Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers who are two of the five best interior linemen in our rankings. Davis and Myers are powerful players who can dominate up front and open up holes for the running game and give Fields time to find his receivers downfield. The Buckeyes are returning a pair of excellent receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, but have plenty of young talent behind them. The Buckeyes have a group of freshmen receivers we expect will see the field early, and second year speedster Jameson Williams ready to make his mark. Williams has rare speed and should be a big play threat anytime he is on the field, he has had a year to pick up the offense and get stronger and should be ready to make his mark. The only question for the Buckeyes is who will replace JK Dobbins at running back? Trey Sermon has transferred in from Oklahoma and Master Teague was productive as Dobbins’ backup last year, but neither has had close to the success Dobbins enjoyed. They will likely split time, and with the passing attack and offensive line, should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. The Buckeyes will score a lot of points in 2020, Nebraska is the first team tasked with trying to slow them down.

That task is even more daunting considering that Nebraska will be replacing every starter on the defensive line and two of their four linebackers. Will Honas and Collin Miller provide experience at linebacker and were second and third on the team in tackles last season. JoJo Domann returns at outside linebacker after making nine tackles for loss in 2019. The Huskers will be counting on players like Ty Robinson to provide good play at the point of attack to keep blockers from getting to the second level. Robinson has excellent size and athleticism on the defensive line and can be disruptive up front. We expect him to emerge as a key player on the defensive line for the Huskers this year. In the secondary, Nebraska returns a lot of experience though they did lose starting cornerback Lamar Jackson. Dicaprio Bootle is the most established player in the secondary after earning third team all Big Ten honors in 2019. Nebraska is replacing a lot of upfront and will be tested early and often by the Buckeyes arsenal of weapons.

Scott Frost made his reputation as a coach with his high scoring offense. In year three at Nebraska, his team is looking to finally hit it’s stride on the offensive side of the ball. Part of the problem for Nebraska has been the inconsistent play of quarterback Adrian Martinez. He is a dangerous runner who can make plays outside of the pocket, but has struggled with his accuracy and turnovers. Martinez has to play consistent football and deliver the ball with accuracy for Nebraska’s offense to get in rhythm. The most dynamic weapon for the Huskers is Wan’Dale Robinson who as a true freshman filled in wherever the Huskers needed him to and performed as a runner and receiver. His versatility should make him a key player in the Nebraska offense and allow the coaches to create favorable matchups for him. The offensive line returns completely intact, if they have developed as a group it should give the offense a strong foundation and give Martinez time to get the ball to his weapons. Nebraska needs to show growth offensively and a good start against Ohio State would help build momentum for the season.

The Ohio State defense has more questions than their offense, but also have plenty of talent to fill in for the stars that have departed. The Buckeyes lost three starters on the defensive line, including superstar defensive end Chase Young. They lost their best linebacker and three starters in the secondary including first round cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette. Fortunately, Shaun Wade decided to return for another season in Columbus. He is among the best cornerbacks in the country with excellent athleticsm, good size and ball skills. He will be asked to play on the outside after manning the slot position for the Buckeyes a year ago. Up front, the Buckeyes will be hard pressed to find a player who can match Chase Young’s production but do have a pair of talented defensive ends ready to make their mark. Tyreke Smith and Zach Harrison are both physically impressive players who have flashed their abilities in the past, but will now be counted on to provide consistent play on a weekly basis. Even with several big names gone, Ohio State’s defense has the depth and talent to be a formidable unit in 2020.

Ohio State has national championship aspirations and will look to start the season of with an impressive performance. With only nine games to showcase themselves for the College Football Playoff Committee the Buckeyes will be looking to make each game as impressive as possible. Nebraska is entering the third year of the Scott Frost era and will need to show progress on the field to build momentum for the future.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (3:30 PM, Fox)

Iowa State and Oklahoma State are both sitting atop the Big 12 standings with an undefeated conference record. Both teams were off last weekend and have had the opportunity to prepare for this contest. We expect to see a competitive game between two well rounded football teams who are capable of winning the conference this year.

The big question for the Oklahoma State offense is the health of starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. He suffered an ankle injury in the season opener and has not played since. Head Coach Mike Gundy has said he believes Sanders is 100 percent healthy but why would he say anything else? Sanders is a talented quarterback with good mobility, who has flashed big play ability but turned the ball over too many times in 2019. He will need to play under control and be efficient running the offense for the Cowboys to be successful. If Sanders cannot play or does not execute, true freshman Shane Illingworth has played well in his absence and could run the offense effectively. Oklahoma State has two big weapons for the quarterback to lean on. Chuba Hubbard was the #1 running back in our preseason rankings and has the vision, speed and balance needed to be an elite back. On the perimeter Tylan Wallace (#4 WR in our rankings) is one of the best receivers in contested catch situations. He is able to win on the outside frequently, making the quarterback’s job that much easier. The Cowboys offense has improved over their first three games but will need to conitnue to progress to get a win against the Cyclones.

Iowa State has had a solid defense in 2020. The team has gotten strong play from the defensive end position, where senior Jaquan Bailey made 19 tackles with 6 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and a fumble forced. His partner in crime is sophomore Will McDonald IV who is blossoming into an excellent pass rusher, making a move up our defensive end rankings. On the back end of the defense safety Greg Eisworth is one of the better safeties in the country and Isheem Young is coming on as a big hitter at the safety position as well. Young is a second year player with a lot of potential who was primed for a breakthrough coming into the year. The defense has been strong against the run ranking 13th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cyclones will attempt to stay true to this formula by stifling Hubbard and the Oklahoma State running attack and force Sanders or Illingworth to beat them through the air.

Iowa State’s offense did not get off to a good start this season. Injuries on the offensive line and to Charlie Kolar led to an ineffective season opener for the offense and a loss for the team. But the Cyclones have returned to health and have played much better, scoring over 30 points in all three games since then. Brock Purdy bounced back from a tough outing where he was constantly under pressure in the opener and has put together three good games in a row, throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions over that stretch. Breece Hall was ranked the #20 RB in our preseason rankings but is due for a move up on the list with his strong start to the season. He has gone over 100 yards and scored at least one touchdown in all four games this season. The offensive line has played better, leading to improved production from Purdy and Hall. The Cyclones offense has hit its stride but will face a tough test from the Oklahoma State defense.

Oklahoma State has been lights out on defense this year. The Cowboys are second in the country limiting opponents to nine points per game and sixth in total defense allowing just 274.3 yards per game. The defense is led by senior linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga (#12 LB in our rankings) who has a team high 22 tackles through three games. He is a sideline to sideline linebacker, who uses his athleticism to pursue the football. The Cowboys also have a quality pair of safeties in Kolby Harvell-Peel and Tre Sterling (#12 and #22 in our rankings). Harvell-Peel has 8 tackles with 1 tackle for loss, 2 passes defended and an interception while Sterling has made 19 tackles and 2 tackles for loss. The duo compliment each other well and are able to provide quality coverage and effective run support. The Cowboys will need their defense to continue its strong play to slow down a Cyclone’s offense that has put it together since their first game.

Iowa State and Oklahoma State are in prime position to make the Big 12 championship and this game will give the winner a one game lead and the tie breaker over the other. With Texas and Oklahoma each having two losses already this year the Big 12 race is open and the Cowboys or Cyclones will move into the pole position on Saturday.

Michigan at Minnesota (7:30 PM, ABC)

These two teams will battle for the little brown jug to kickoff their 2020 season. Both teams had good seasons in 2019 but did not win their respective divisions. The road to a division title and a spot in the Big Ten championship game starts with a tough contest Saturday night.

Minnesota returns a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Tanner Morgan (#9 QB in our rankings) and receiver Rashod Bateman (#1 WR in our rankings) are coming off excellent seasons in 2019. Morgan passed for over 3,200 yards with 30 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions and Bateman accounted for over 1,200 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns. Also returning for the Gophers are their top six offensive linemen from last years team, though Danielle Faalele may not be fully recovered from an injury. The line was good last year and with another year of continuity should be one of the best groups in the Big Ten. All of this sets up nicely for new starting running back Mohamed Ibrahim who had an excellent performance in Minnesota’s bowl game against Auburn last year running for 140 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. He enters the year ranked 24th in our running back rankings and should be a player to watch, with a good offensive line in front of him and a lot of touches coming his way. The Gophers look like a team that will score a lot of points in 2020, but the Michigan defense is a tough one to open with.

The Wolverines finished the 2019 season ranked in the top 25 in all of the major defensive categories. The defense has had quite a bit of turnover from last year with players moving on to the NFL and with cornerback Ambry Thomas opting out. The Wolverines do have two talented defensive ends leading the way. Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye (#15 and #19 DE in our rankings) combined for 21.5 tackles for loss last season and will look to build on that success this season. They face a good offensive line, but the duo make a good tandem and should be a tough test for the Gophers. In the secondary, Daxton Hill is an excellent athlete who has the speed and athleticism to be an excellent defensive back. He got on the field quite a bit as a true freshman in 2019 but will be counted on as a starter and leader for the defensive backs especially with Ambry Thomas’ decision to opt out. The Michigan defense has been good recently but has struggled against some of the better offenses they have faced, Minnesota will provide a tough test for the Wolverines to start the season.

Michigan will be breaking in a new quarterback this year, Joe Milton is entering his third season with the program and is expected to make the first start of his career against Minnesota. Milton has limited experience over the past two seasons completing 6 of 11 passes for 117 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Milton is a big, strong quarterback who is a good athlete with a strong arm. The offense was not immune to opt outs either as Michigan’s best receiver, Nico Collins, opted out of the 2020 season as well. This leaves the team with just one receiver with over 250 receiving yards last year in Ronnie Bell. The good news comes in the person of Jalen Mayfield who opted back in and will be available at tackle for the Wolverines offensive line. The team was already breaking in four new starters on the offensive line this year with Mayfield back in the fold they have a leader they can rely on to anchor one side of the line while the rest of the unit comes together. There are a lot of unknowns on offense for Michigan to start the season, Saturday will be the first look to see if the new pieces fit in Josh Gattis’ scheme.

Minnesota’s defense does not return the experience their offense does. The Gophers only have three returning starters on defense, nose tackle Micah Dew-Treadway and cornerbacks Benjamin St-Juste and Coney Durr. St-Juste will be facing his former team, the corner transferred from Michigan to Minnesota and has found success with the Gophers. In 2019 he made 45 tackles, 1. 5 tackles for loss and had 10 pass breakups. St-Juste is a tall cornerback at 6’3″ who has shown the ability to cover on the perimeter. He and Durr will provide the Gophers with an experienced and talented cornerback tandem that can cover one on one and allows the defense to be aggressive in the front seven. The secondary will be the strength of the defense but needs Tyler Nubin to step into Antoine Winfield’s safety spot and be a playmaker on the back end. He is a physical player with the size to be a safety, but also has the coverage ability to play in man to man situations. If Nubin develops quickly, the secondary could be a major strength for the team like it was in 2019. Minnesota’s defense has a few key pieces in place but has a lot of unknowns to start the season, it’s fitting they will go head to head with a Michigan offense that is also very inexperienced.

This game has the potential to be a launching board for the winner to compete for a conference title. Minnesota has proven players on the offensive side of the ball and will attempt to ride their offense to a season opening victory. The Wolverines will be counting on their traditionally stout defense to slow down that offense and allow Joe Milton and company to win them the game. The winner will take home the little brown jug and kick start their 2020 season.

Cincinnati at SMU (9:00 PM, ESPN 2)

The AAC has a showdown between two undefeated teams to wrap up the college football slate on Saturday. SMU has been winning with their high powered offense while Cincinnati wins with their outstanding defense. Great defense meets great offense on Saturday night and the winner will be in the driver’s seat in the American.

The Mustangs have been clicking on all cylinders offensively averaging over 42 points per game, good for seventh nationally. They did lose their best receiver when Reggie Roberson Jr was injured against Memphis. Roberson is a big time talent at receiver who will be missed but the offense marched on and put 37 points on the board against Tulane last week. Quarterback Shane Buechele (#21 QB in our rankings) is very comfortable in the offense, completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,710 yards with 12 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions. Even when Roberson was healthy, Buechele spread the ball around to his receivers allowing multiple players to make an impact. The offense has gotten a big boost from redshirt freshman running back Ulysses Bentley IV. He runs with good speed and burst and has been able to pick up yards in chunks. He has 506 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 74 carries this year, giving the Mustangs a credible threat in the run game. SMU has scored more than 30 points in all five of their games this season and will be attempting to get that streak to six against a tough Cincinnati defense.

Cincinnati’s defense has been equally effective, allowing only 12.3 points per game which is good for sixth nationally. The Bearcats have forced eight turnovers in their three games this year capitalizing on their opponents miscues. The secondary features two players who are already stars at their position, safety James Wiggins (#18 S in our rankings) and cornerback Ahmad Gardner (#9 CB in our rankings). Gardner is a sophomore who has gotten off to a fast start in 2020 with 12 tackles, 3 pass breakups and 2 interceptions in three games. He has good height and length and the footwork to play man coverage on the outside. Wiggins is a senior, who is the leader of the secondary, he has accounted for 15 tackles and 3 pass breakups so far. The duo will aim to slow down a dangerous passing attack from SMU, but will get some help from their defensive front in doing that. Junior defensive end Myjai Sanders is an effective pass rusher, recording 4 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. The linebacker group features, Jarell White, he is an undersized but rangy player who is relentless in pursuit of the football. White leads the team with 31 tackles and has 3.5 tackles for loss to his credit as well. The Bearcats have talent at all three levels of the defense and will make the SMU offense work to score points in this game.

The Cincinnati offense has not yet hit its stride. They scored 55 points against Austin Peay, but have failed to break 30 against Army and South Florida. Turnovers have been an issue for the offense, they have thrown four interceptions and lost two fumbles the last two weeks. The Bearcats have struggled to find consistency on offense this season and a lot of the struggles can be traced to the quarterback position. Desmond Ridder is a talented dual threat quarterback but is inconsistent in the passing game and prone to turnovers. Ridder has the size and athleticism to be a dynamic quarterback but needs to stay within the offense and avoid the bad throws that flip the momentum of the game. Ridder is the key to the Bearcats offense, if he gets on track Cincinnati will be tough to beat.

As good as the Mustangs offense has been, the defense has improved significantly from 2019 and is a reason for optimism in 2020. SMU allowed over 32 points per game a year ago, but that number is down to 25.4 this season. That improvement includes their game against a high powered Memphis offense they were able to limit to 27 points. A pair of sophomores have proven themselves to be key playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. Cornerback Brandon Crossley has made three interceptions and has two pass breakups through five games this year. He is a smaller defensive back but makes big plays on the field. Up front, defensive tackle Elijah Chatman has become a disruptive player who uses his quickness and leverage to get in the backfield. Chatman has made 12 tackles and 5 tackles for loss including 3 sacks on the season. The Mustangs defense may not be the strength of their team but has young players coming on and has improved from last year.

Winning this game would put either of these teams in the lead position in the AAC. SMU already has a win over Memphis, adding a win over Cincinnati would keep them unbeaten and give them two key head to head tiebreakers. The Bearcats are earlier in their schedule, but could start to build a stong resume with a big win over a good SMU team.

Final Thoughts

With the Big Ten and Mountain West conferences joining the season, we are getting closer to a full schedule. It’s strange but exciting to have different conferences at different points in the schedule, while the ACC and Big 12 are narrowing down the field of contenders, the SEC still has a fluid list of teams trying to challenge Alabama and Georgia, and the Big Ten is just kicking off. We will be back after the games have ended to recap the weekend that was.

For a full list of the games on TV this weekend click here.

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ISU vs OSU 2019-10-26 Image by Daniel Hartwig is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

CFB Saturdays

What We Are Watching In College Football: October 24, 2020 Weekend