What We Are Watching In College Football: October 17, 2020 Weekend

Each week we will provide a preview of the upcoming college football weekend. Friday and Saturday offer up several appetizers before the main course on Saturday night when Georgia and Alabama square off. There are a several games and match-ups to keep an eye on so without further ado here is what we are focused on this weekend. (For a recap of last weekend, click here)

The Games We Will Focus On

BYU at Houston (Fri 9:30 PM, ESPN)

BYU has been rolling so far this season, they have a perfect 4 – 0 record, dominating the opposition in three of four games this year. They did have a closer game against UTSA last week and will look to bounce back on the road against Houston. Those Cougars are 1 – 0 after winning their opener against Tulane this past Thursday, and will look to get another big win against BYU on Friday night.

The BYU offense has been close to unstoppable in 2020. It all starts with star quarterback, Zach Wilson, who just moved into the top five of our quarterback rankings. Wilson has been nearly perfect, showing a command of the offense and an excellent skill set. He has been protected well by an experienced offensive line that returns four of five starters from last year, led by tackle Brady Christensen (#23 tackle in our preseason rankings). The line has excelled protecting Wilson, but has also paved the way for a strong BYU running game. That running game is led by sophomore running back Tyler Allgeier who has run for 391 yards on 53 carries with four touchdowns. He is a fast and powerful runner who gets through the hole quickly and can make a big play at any moment. Allgeier has seen his role increase as the season has progressed, carrying the ball a season high 19 times last week and we expect to see a lot of the talented running back on Friday night.

Houston’s defense will be challenged to slow down the high powered BYU offense, but they do have a strong performance under their belt. In the season opener, Houston was able to limit Tulane to 211 total yards of offense and just three yards per play. The defense was equally effective against the pass and the run, holding the Green Wave to 1.56 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Houston’s defense is led by defensive lineman, Payton Turner, who made 7 tackles and had 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 of which were sacks. Turner is in his third year as a starter and the senior leads the way upfront for a defense that recorded 12 tackles for loss and 6 sacks last week. Houston will attempt to use the same pressure formula to get past the BYU offensive line to stifle the running game and put pressure on Wilson to force him into some mistakes.

The Houston offense was also very effective when they were finally able to get out of their own way. The Cougars turned the ball over five times, throwing two interception and losing three fumbles. When Houston wasn’t giving the ball to Tulane, they were marching up and down the field scoring touchdowns on six possessions, missing a field goal on a seventh and only punting three times in the game. The passing attack was particularly effective accounting for 319 yards on 9.7 yards per pass attempt. Houston’s best weapon on offense is receiver Marquez Stevenson (#21 WR in our preseason rankings) who has the speed and explosive ability to threaten the defense from anywhere on the field. His big play ability also helps create space for the other players on the offense. Houston’s passing game will attempt to duplicate the success UTSA had against BYU’s defense.

The BYU defense has had a strong season but their last outing was their worst. Everything is relative, a bad day for BYU’s defense was giving up 20 points and 359 yards of offense with 287 of those yards coming via the passing game. Plenty of teams across the country would be happy with that performance. Senior safety, Troy Warner has been leading the way on the back end making an interception in each of the last two games. Most of the Cougar’s defense has experience from last season, but a defensive linemen who has emerged is freshman, Tyler Batty. The young pass rusher has four sacks and two more hurries in the four games this season. The defense gave up a few big plays against UTSA, they will need to clean that up to keep a dynamic player like Stevenson in check, but this unit has played well all season and should make things difficult for the Houston offense.

Friday night will give us a chance to gauge how strong these two teams are. BYU has worked hard to patch together a schedule this year, Friday night is one of the tougher games they have on paper. They will attempt to make a statement and show they belong among the best in college football. On the other hand, Houston is coming off a disappointing 2019 and is looking to build momentum in the early portion of their 2020 season.

Pittsburgh vs Miami (Sat 12:00 PM, ACCN)

Both Pittsburgh and Miami are coming off tough losses last weekend. The Panthers missed an extra point in overtime that would have tied the game against Boston College. The Hurricanes played their worst game of the season in a blowout loss to Clemson. Only one of them will be able to get back on track this weekend when the two teams face off on Saturday.

The Miami offense was excellent the first three games of the season before playing it’s worst game of the season against Clemson. The Tigers were able to highlight Miami’s weaknesses and force the offense out of it’s comfort zone. The biggest issue for the Hurricanes was the play of the wide receivers, Clemson played one on one coverage and put extra players in the box to rush the passer. The receivers were unable to win those matchups on the perimeter which allowed Clemson to keep attacking quarterback D’Eriq King and the running game aggressively with numbers. The Hurricanes’ receivers will need to do a better job of getting open and making catches to keep the offense on schedule and opening up lanes for the running game. Brevin Jordan has been Miami’s best option in the passing game but the talented tight end was injured last week and did not return. His return will be crucial to getting the offense back on track. Miami had a bad week, but the offense had been efficient and effective prior to the last game and we expect them to return to form this weekend.

Pittsburgh has a talented defensive front that has excelled pressuring the quarterback. The Panthers lead the country in sacks with 25 and are third in sacks per game averaging five per contest. Senior defensive ends Patrick Jones II and Rashad Weaver lead the way with 7 and 4.5 sacks, respectively. Both have shined as pass rushers and make it difficult for the offense to focus on either one of them. The Panthers have done more than just rush the passer, they also lead the country in tackles for loss with 52 (4th in average with 10.4 per game). The defense is disruptive and gets contributions from players at every level, linebacker SirVocea Dennis has 6.5 tackles for loss and safety Paris Ford has contributed 3.5 tackles for loss. Pat Narduzzi plays a quarters/man scheme against the pass that challenges receivers in one on one matchups downfield. The defense is effective when it’s defensive backs are able to hold up in coverage. Despite the last two losses, the defense is ranked 12th in the country allowing just 18.2 points per game. We expect the Panthers to challenge the Miami receivers and focus their front seven on pressuring King, similar to what Clemson was able to do last week.

The Pittsburgh offense has not been a strength so far this season. The running game has been virtually non existent ranking 13th out of 15 teams in the ACC. The passing attack was ranked 4th in the conference at 284.2 yards per game but that may be difficult to maintain with starting quarterback Kenny Pickett injuring his ankle against Boston College. Pickett’s status is uncertain for this weekends game, if he is unable to play that will be a big blow to the Panthers passing attack. Pittsburgh’s best offensive weapon is true freshman receiver Jordan Addison who leads the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns. Addison has proven to be a reliable playmaker but has battled a shoulder injury the past two weeks. He is one of the best true freshmen in the country and a key component in a Panthers offense that needs all of its explosive players on Saturday.

The Miami Defense is predicated on getting pressure on the quarterback. The Hurricanes have a deep stable of defensive linemen that are able to rotate in the game and continue to disrupt the offense. Miami ranks fifth in the country with 10 tackles for loss per game, just one spot behind Pittsburgh. Defensive ends Quincy Roche and Jaelan Phillips get a lot of notoriety but tackles Nesta Silvera and Jared Harrison-Hunte have been very good this season. They have both made three tackles for loss a piece and have provided strong play on the interior of the defensive line. Miami’s defense relies on its ability to get penetration and create negative plays for the offense, putting them behind schedule and creating opportunities for turnovers. Pittsburgh will need to stay on schedule offensively and keep the Hurricanes off balance to have success moving the ball.

Both teams are in need of a win Saturday to keep their season from going off the rails. Pittsburgh started 3 – 0 and appeared to be headed toward a 5 – 0 start. The Panthers were favored in the last two games but lost both and are on the verge of being back at .500 with a loss. In recent years Miami has allowed one loss to carry over into the subsequent weeks and derail the season, the 2020 team needs to prove it can put the loss behind them, right the ship and continue building the program. One of these teams will be back in the race and the other will have a lot of soul searching to do Saturday evening.

UCF at Memphis (3:30 PM, ABC)

Two of the top teams in the AAC will play each other on Saturday. Both teams have had a week off after losing their last game and should be eager to put that loss in the past. The game will feature two of the best offenses from 2019 and we are likely headed toward a shootout this weekend.

The Memphis offense has averaged 32 points per game which is down about eight points from 2019. The decrease could be the result of losing head coach Mike Norvell or it could be the by product of playing just two games in a months time. Memphis played on September 5 before shutting down until October 3 when they played SMU. The long layoff is anything but usual for a college football team. The Tigers will need to have their offense operating on all cylinders this weekend to outscore UCF. Brady White (#15 QB in our rankings) is back behind center for the Memphis offense. He is an accurate passer who is completing over 70 percent of his passes on the season. He has an excellent target on the perimeter in Damonte Coxie (#24 WR in our rankings) who is a big, reliable receiver, who also provides a big play threat downfield. He has made 16 catches in just two games and will be targeted often on Saturday. Even without stud running back Kenneth Gainwell, who opted out before the season began, Memphis has had success running the ball, averaging 213.5 yards per game and over five yards per carry. The UCF defense will have their hands full attempting to slow down a diverse Memphis attack.

UCF’s defense was solid in 2019 and appears to be on the way to a similar season in 2020. The unit has a senior leader up front in defensive tackle Kenny Turnier (#19 DT in our rankings) and he has hit the ground running this year. Turnier has accounted for 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks and a fumble forced in his first three games of the season. While Turnier provides the muscle up front, on the back end the Knights have a playmaking safety leading the way. Richie Grant (#11 S in our rankings) has made a habit of making big plays for his defense. The senior safety has already intercepted two passes this year and has made 21 tackles to boot. With the two seniors leading the way the Knights defense is able to make big plays and get the ball back for their high flying offense.

UCF’s offense has picked up right where it left off a year ago, averaging 42 points per game. The Knights have a solid run game but the passing attack has been prolific, ranking third in the country while averaging 385 passing yards per game. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel (#22 QB in our rankings) orchestrates the offense and has thrived in the high tempo attack (88 plays per game). He has surpassed 1,100 passing yards in the first three games and had 9 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Gabriel has a lot of weapons and a scheme that suits him which has allowed him and the Knights to be very successful. UCF utilizes several receivers in the passing game and already has four players who have made multiple touchdown catches this season. The Knights will wear the defense down with tempo and attack with a variety of weapons, capitalizing on the fatigue and confusion they can create. Memphis will need to keep UCF from stringing together first downs and tiring out the Tigers defense.

The Tigers defense hasn’t struggled but it’s not a strength either. Memphis allows 27 points per game, which is close to where they were in 2019. They have defended the run well this year limiting opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. The problem is the pass defense, which is ranked dead last in passing yards per game allowed (386.5). This does not bode well when playing a team that throws the ball as well as UCF does. In order to slow down the Knights passing attack on Saturday, Memphis needs defensive end Joseph Dorceus to lead the way up front and get pressure on Gabriel. Dorceus made 14.5 tackles for loss a year ago but has accounted for only 1.5 tackles for loss this year. If Dorceus and the defensive front is unable to make Gabriel uncomfortable expect it to be a long day for the Tigers secondary.

UCF and Memphis both suffered conference losses in their last outing. The loser this Saturday will be in a deep hole in the conference standings and would be a long shot to qualify for the AAC championship game. The Tigers and Knights both had high expectations coming into the season and need this win to have a shot at reaching those expectations.

Georgia at Alabama (8:00 PM, CBS)

The schedule makers saved the best game of the weekend for the prime-time slot. Georgia and Alabama are both undefeated and both have rosters loaded with NFL talent. The Tide are riding their high powered offense while the Bulldogs have a suffocating defense. On Saturday night, the unstoppable force meets the immovable object, and something will have to give.

Alabama’s offense leads the country averaging a whopping 51 points per game. The Tide have stars all over the field and can move the ball at will up and down the field. The running game is certainly formidable averaging 5.1 yards per carry but it’s the passing game that has been shredding defenses. With three big play receivers to throw to and an excellent offensive line protecting him, Mac Jones has grown into a star in his first full season as the starter. Jones is leading the country in passer rating and is averaging 13.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has protected him well giving up just four sacks in three games and his receivers have been dynamic with Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and John Metchie III all averaging over 99 yards receiving per game. As if that wasn’t enough to worry about, running back Najee Harris is a star in his own right, contributing over 115 yards per game rushing and 10 rushing touchdowns already. The Alabama offense can be overwhelming for most defenses, but Georgia’s defense is not like most defenses.

Georgia’s defense is one of, if not the, best in the country. They allow a mere 12.3 points per game and are difficult to move the ball against. The Bulldogs suffocate opponents running games allowing just 1.5 yards per carry this year. Throwing the football against them hasn’t fared much better, Georgia is giving up just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The statistics are wonderful but the tape is equally impressive. Georgia’s defense dictates to their opponents, controlling the game when they don’t have the football. The defense has talent and depth at every position allowing the Bulldogs to rotate in players and keep everyone fresh, but there are a few stars who have stood out. OLB/DE Azeez Ojulari is an excellent pass rusher who has made five tackles for loss and three sacks while forcing two fumbles and also recording eight quarterback hurries. He is a twitchy player who has a natural knack for getting to the quarterback. Linebacker Monty Rice (#10 LB in our preseason rankings) is more of a traditional linebacker who has an excellent feel for the game and always ends up in the right place. That ability to find the play has led to 18 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, a sack, fumble forced and fumble recovered which he returned for a touchdown. The secondary is led by safety Richard LeCounte who we ranked the best safety in the country this off-season. He has already intercepted two passes on the young season. The defensive talent is on the same level as Alabama’s offensive talent which will make this an entertaining battle.

Georgia’s offense is still finding it’s way in 2020 but has been steady since Stetson Bennett took over at quarterback. The junior does not have ideal size and may not be a household name at the position, but he plays smart football and avoids mistakes that would put his team in bad positions. The team has several new starters on the offensive line and the unit is still gelling around center Trey Hill who is one of the best interior offensive lineman in college football. With stability up front and at the the quarterback position the offense has gotten better week to week. The Bulldogs have a talented group of young running backs that should benefit from the offensive line coming together. The passing game has not been dynamic so far, the Bulldogs have to get the ball to their weapons downfield and get more explosive plays in the passing game to create space for the running game. Georgia has recruited plenty of talented weapons on the offensive side of the ball, expect the offense to continue to improve as the season progresses.

Alabama has a talented defense of their own but, the results have not been up to Alabama’s standards. There is a bit of recency bias here since their last performance was clearly their worst of the season. Mississippi was able to go up and down the field scoring 48 points and gaining 647 yards of offense against the Crimson Tide. It was an all around poor performance as the Rebels ran for over 250 yards and passed for over 350 yards. The good news is Georgia’s offense is schematically very different from what Alabama saw against Mississippi and there is plenty of talent on this Alabama defense. Alabama has a plethora of players who made our player rankings on defense. The leader of the defense is linebacker Dylan Moses who is one of the top players at his position and a true impact player. Moses is an excellent athlete with a great build and the speed to play from sideline to sideline. In the secondary, Alabama has a top cornerback in Patrick Surtain who has the size and covers skills that NFL teams covet these days. We expect Alabama to play better on the defensive side of the ball this weekend, how much better they play will determine if they can beat Georgia.

Things have been rocky in the SEC so far this season. Georgia and Alabama have separated themselves from the rest of the conference and this could be a preview of the SEC title game. Saturday night will be an entertaining game between two of the four most talented teams in college football.

In-Game Match-ups To Watch

WR Seth Williams #18 (Auburn) vs CB Israel Mukuamu #24 (South Carolina)

Seth Williams (#24 WR in our preseason rankings) is a big and explosive receiver who can do things like this. Williams has made 12 catches for 216 yards and has two touchdowns this season. He is an athletic mismatch for most cornerbacks he faces but this week is the exception to that rule. Israel Mukuamu is a rare 6’4″ cornerback who has the cover skills to play man to man against receivers like Williams. We had him ranked in our top ten cornerbacks and he has given us no reason to second guess that ranking. Mukuamu has made 6 tackles and intercepted a pass already this season and we expect him to continue to play well. Williams and Mukuamu should get matched up one on one on the perimeter several times this game and it gives us a good chance to see both players against a top end talent. May the best man win.

RB Javian Hawkins #10 (Louisville) vs LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah #6 and S Kyle Hamilton #4 (Notre Dame)

This one isn’t as simple as a receiver going head to head with a top corner. Javian Hawkins (#7 RB in our preseason rankings) has been productive in spite of Louisville’s struggles this season. He has run for 468 yards on 85 carries and three touchdowns and is coming off his best game of the season against Georgia Tech. Hawkins is an explosive running back and stopping him will be a team effort, but the two players who will have to make a number of those plays against him in the run game and cover him in the pass game are Owusu-Koramoah and Hamilton. Owusu-Koramoah is a top flight linebacker who is an excellent athlete in space. He has the cover skills to match-up with a player like Hawkins and is a good tackler in space who can keep the talented running back from getting loose. He already has 15 tackles and 4 tackles for loss on the young season. Hamilton is a big safety who also ranks among the best at his position. He missed one game due to an injury in the season opener but is back and patrolling the second level for the Fighting Irish. Hamilton also has 15 tackles on the season and has a pass breakup to his credit. He is an excellent athlete with the size to be a factor against the running game. We should see Owusu-Koramoah and Hamilton tasked with containing Hawkins often this weekend, giving viewers a chance to see some of the best athletes in football go head to head.

WR Devonta Smith #6, WR Jaylen Waddle #17 and WR John Metchie (Alabama) vs CB Tyson Campbell #3, CB Eric Stokes #27, S Richard LeCounte #2 and S Lewis Cine #16 (Georgia)

We have already spent a good amount of time discussing the showdown between Georgia and Alabama. It will be very rare for Alabama to face a team that has the personnel and depth in the secondary to match-up with all of their receivers. With Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and John Metchie, Alabama has a talented group of receivers who are all big play threats in the passing game. The trio has the speed, explosiveness and run after the catch ability to make the defense pay for every mistake. Georgia is one of the few teams with the talent in the secondary to compete with the electric group of receivers. Richard LeCounte is the leader of the group and a proven cover safety but his colleagues have all proven they are excellent players as well. Stokes has made two interceptions already this season and is primed for a big season. Campbell has always had excellent physical tools and has played at a high level so far this season leading the team with three pass breakups. Cine is the youngster in the group but the sophomore has been solid as well making 13 tackles this year. It’s fun when you can see a good receiver go up against a good corner, but this week will be a delight for college football fans when we get to see a group of excellent receivers take on an excellent secondary. College football fans and the NFL will be watching intently.

Final Thoughts

This is the last weekend without the Big Ten in action. It’s been a strange season with several postponements and cancellations which has led to a lot of unpredictable football. It’s been good to have more full Saturday schedules the last few weeks and we expect things to continue to get better with more teams joining the season. We will be back after the games have ended to recap the weekend that was.

For a full list of the games on TV this weekend click here.

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GA VS LSU E101318 132 Image by Tammy Anthony Baker is licensed under CC BY 2.0.