Texas 2021 Football Preview

2020 Recap

Texas opened the season strong offensively, scoring 122 points in their first two games against UTEP and Texas Tech. The defense was problematic against Texas Tech and continued to struggle against TCU and Oklahoma the next two weeks. The Longhorns fell 33 – 31 against TCU and 53 – 45 in overtime against Oklahoma. At 2 – 2, Texas was behind the eight-ball in the Big 12 and needed to go on a run to compete for the conference championship.

The Longhorns actually only lost one more game the rest of the season, a three point loss at home against Iowa State, but did not qualify for the Big 12 Championship game. Texas would clobber Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, but it was not enough to save Tom Herman’s job as head coach in Austin.

Herman had arrived with high expectations and failed to reach them over the course of his career. In the end his record was not terrible, but it was clear that he was not taking Texas where they wanted to go and a change needed to be made. The University hired Steve Sarkisian who had been the offensive coordinator at Alabama, to lead the team into the future.

2020 Leaders

Projected Starters

Reasons For Optimism

Bijan Robinson

Robinson was the crown jewel of the 2020 recruiting class and arrived in Austin with high expectations. It took a few weeks for the talented freshman to establish himself, but once he did Robinson was nearly unstoppable. He rushed for over 100 yards in three of the last four games of 2020 and averaged over 9 yards per carry in those three games. Robinson finished the season with 703 rushing yards on 8.2 yards per carry and added on 196 receiving yards as well. The explosive playmaking ability Robinson showed in 2020 was just the tip of the iceberg for the talented back. He should thrive with a primary role and a creative offense built around him by Sarkisian.

The Cupboard is not Empty

While Tom Herman did not meet expectations and did not recruit up to the standards expected at Texas, he did bring in talented players during his tenure. The talent level may not be where Longhorn fans want it to be, but there are several former top 100 recruits on the roster that will contribute in key spots. There is talent across the roster on both sides of the ball that can be developed to help Texas compete for Big 12 titles. Obviously the Longhorns need to do a better job of keeping the top talent at home and developing the talent they recruit, but there is talent to work with in Austin.

Sarkisian’s Impact

The hope for Texas fans is that Steve Sarkisian will be an upgrade over Tom Herman as a recruiter, developing players and schematically. Sarkisian was in charge of an innovative and explosive offense at Alabama, where the Tide averaged 48.5 points and 7.8 yards per play in 2020. In addition to his success schematically he was able to learn from the best head coach and program builder in college football. While the talent at Texas is not equal to what Sarkisian had at Alabama, the lessons learned in Tuscaloosa will help in Austin. Recruiting and player development take some time, but the change in offensive scheme should be noticeable early in his tenure.

Causes For Concern

Who Will Play QB?

The Longhorns are replacing Sam Ehlinger at the quarterback spot. The star quarterback has been a constant for the team since the 2017 season. There’s no guarantee a new quarterback will step in and be successful right away, but Texas does have a couple of capable options. Casey Thompson has been with the program since 2018 and was very successful against Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, but has never attempted more than 17 passes in a season. Hudson Card was one of the top quarterback recruits in the 2020 class but has only three pass attempts in his career. The hope is that Sarkisian can develop one of these quarterbacks to orchestrate his offense, but it’ s certainly not a sure thing. A question mark at the most important position on the field is always a cause for concern.

Big Losses on Defense

Texas’ defense was inconsistent during the 2020 season. They gave up 56 points against Texas Tech and 53 against Oklahoma (in overtime), but also held Iowa State to 23 and West Virginia to 13. Though it wasn’t a strength the defense did have games where they made big plays, but a few of the key playmakers from the 2020 defense have moved on. Leading pass rusher, Joseph Ossai, and star safety, Caden Sterns, are in the NFL now. Linebacker Juwan Mitchell, who led the team in tackles, has transferred to Tennessee and leaves a void at the position. For a defense that struggled at times in 2020 it will be a challenge to replace three of the unit’s best players. To beat the best teams in the conference, Texas will need new stars to step in and fill the holes on defense.

2021 Schedule

Top 25 Players

2021 Projection

Texas has a solid team that should be able to handle most of it’s schedule in 2021. The big question is can Texas get past Oklahoma and Iowa State who played for the Big 12 title last year and both return most of their production from a year ago. Traveling to Ames makes the Iowa State game even tougher and Oklahoma is going to be a tough out for anyone in 2020. Other than those two games Texas should be favored in their other games. Road matchups with Arkansas and TCU (who has given Texas fits recently) could be trouble. Texas gets Oklahoma State, Kansas State and a sound Louisiana team at home but all three are capable teams. Expect Texas to get to 9 wins during the regular season, but if they can get rolling and upset one of the top two in the conference a double digit win season and Big 12 Title game berth is within reach.