Game To Watch: Oregon at #13 USC: December 18, 2020

Oregon will visit USC in the Pac 12 Championship Game this Friday at 8:00 EST. Oregon went 3 – 2 during what was a streaky regular season for the Ducks. They won their first three games but lost two close games in a row coming into the conference title game. USC had an undefeated regular season at 5 – 0 but had to come from behind for a late win in three of those five games. USC has a chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win and some luck in other games, but Oregon is out of the Playoff discussion this year.

Recent History

Oregon blew out USC in Los Angeles last year 56 – 24. The Ducks intercepted Kedon Slovis three times, returning one of those interceptions for a touchdown. USC’s last win against Oregon came in 2015 when the Trojans won 45 – 20. Oregon has won five of the last seven games in the series with four of those five wins coming by 20 points or more.

Top 25 Players

What To Watch For…

Can Oregon slowdown the USC passing attack?

USC has an air raid offense that prioritizes throwing the football over establishing a consistent running game. Predictably, the Trojans have the top ranked passing offense in the Pac 12 (319.2 ypg) and the worst rushing attack in the conference (109.2 ypg). Kedon Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and the Trojans have a talented group of receivers featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Vaughns and Drake London. The combination of a quality quarterback and big time receivers has allowed the Trojans to be successful, despite the lack of a running game. Oregon’s defense has not been as good in 2020 as they were in 2019. They have had several opt outs in the secondary that created openings at positions where the Ducks were expected to be strong. Despite struggling at times, Oregon has a talented roster on defense that features a star pass rusher in defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux who can wreck a game plan if he is not accounted for. Oregon will have to slow down the USC passing game and force the Trojans to play outside their comfort zone, if they can do that they will be able to limit the USC offense.

Will Tyler Shough bounce back?

Sophomore Tyler Shough has been tasked with replacing Justin Herbert as Oregon’s starting quarterback. He has played well in 2020, but his last game was his least effective of the season. Not surprisingly, it was also Oregon’s worst game offensively. The Ducks scored at least 35 points in each of their first four games, but only scored 17 against Cal in their last game. Shough had season lows with 14 completions, a 53.8 percent completion percentage, and tied a season low with one touchdown pass. Shough had been playing well coming into the California game, completing over 63 percent of his passes in each of the four previous games. Oregon’s offense has played well when Shough has played well, they will need him to be on top of his game against USC. For their part the Trojan’s defense has been solid but unspectacular this year, allowing 25 points per game and ranking in the middle of the Pac 12 in pass defense. USC will attempt to confuse the first year starter and create big plays for the defense. If the Trojans are able to rattle Shough this will be a tough game for Oregon.

Will USC dominate the turnover battle?

Turnovers are the biggest momentum swings in football. As long as football has been played coaches have implored their teams to win the turnover battle. Obviously wanting to do something and actually achieving the goal are two completely different things. USC has done an excellent job of winning the turnover battle this year. USC has forced 15 turnovers, while committing just 8 themselves. With just five games played that’s a +1.4 per game turnover differential for the Trojans in 2020, good for fourth in the country. Oregon, on the other hand, has not performed well in the turnover department. The Ducks have only forced four turnovers this year and have committed 11 of their own. Through five games, Oregon has a -1.4 per game turnover differential, which ranks 123rd in the country. For Oregon to have a chance to win these trends need to balance out this weekend. The Ducks cannot afford to give away scoring chances and field position in a game of this magnitude and expect to win.

Prediction

The Trojans offense has plenty of returning talent that will be able to take advantage of the inexperience in Oregon’s secondary. Tyler Shough will bounce back and play better than he did against Cal, turning the game into a bit of a shootout. Oregon’s inexperience will result in mistakes that are too much for the Ducks to overcome in the end. USC 38 Oregon 34.

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College Football: UCLA at USC. November 23, 2019, Los Angeles, CA Image taken by Steve Cheng, Bruin Report Online is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.