Game To Watch: #9 Indiana at # 3 Ohio State: November 21, 2020

This Saturday at noon, Indiana and Ohio State will play in a battle of unbeaten teams. The Hoosiers are 4 – 0 and seem to play better every week, most recently dominating Michigan State 24 – 0. Ohio State is 3 – 0 and has won comfortably each week, but missed last week’s game due to Covid issues in Maryland’s program. The winner will take essentially a two game lead in the Big Ten East standings and have a sizable lead on the road to the Big Ten Championship game.

Recent History

Ohio State has beaten Indiana 26 straight times since a tie in 1990. The Buckeyes have won the last four games by at least 21 points, including a 51 – 10 win in Bloomington a year ago. The last time Indiana was within one score of Ohio State was the 2015 game when the Hoosiers lost 34 – 27. The Buckeyes have dominated the series, but Indiana is an improved football team in 2020. The question remains have they improved enough to beat the Buckeyes?

Top Players

What To Watch For…

Can Indiana slow down Justin Fields and the Ohio State passing game?

Ohio State has only played three games so far this season, but in those three games Fields has been the best player in college football. He leads the country with an 86.7 percent completion percentage and is fifth in the country with 10.9 yards per attempt. Fields has been so efficient he has as many incomplete passes as a he does touchdown passes (11). The Buckeyes’ quarterback has two big time receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. The duo averages a combined 210.7 receiving yards per game and has 6 touchdowns in three games. So far none of Ohio State’s opponents have been able to slow down the passing attack, but Indiana’s defense is coming off a shutout win over Michigan State. The Hoosiers pass defense has been strong so far this season, limiting opponents to 6.4 yards per attempt and 209.8 yards per game this season. There is no one else on Indiana’s schedule that has a quarterback or receivers as talented as the trio they will face on Saturday. If Fields and his receivers are able to throw the ball as efficiently as they have so far this season, Indiana will be hard pressed to stay in the game.

Will Michael Penix continue his superb play?

Indiana’s offense is led by Michael Penix Jr and the sophomore quarterback has continued to get better in his second season as the starter. Penix has been sharp for the Hoosiers, completing 60.7 percent of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. More importantly, he has made big plays when the game is on the line and led his team to victory. Penix led a furious rally against Penn State that ended with the quarterback diving and willing the ball past the pylon on a scramble for the game winning two point conversion. Indiana has won more comfortably since then, but Penix is the catalyst that makes the offense perform so well. The Buckeyes have allowed 23 points per game this season, but have played much better in the first half than in the second half. The last two weeks they only allowed 9 points in the first half, but gave up 43 points in the second half when the game was more or less decided. To stop Penix and the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes will need to play a complete game defensively and avoid the lapses that have cost them points the last two weeks.

Can either team count on their running game?

The Buckeyes led the conference with 266.8 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry in 2019. JK Dobbins moved on to the NFL and the Ohio State running attack has not been the same. In 2020, they are only averaging 208.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Trey Sermon has lost some of the juice he had at Oklahoma and does not appear to be running with confidence. Master Teague is a powerful runner who gets going downhill, but looks stiff and doesn’t change directions well. The offensive line has also been inconsistent and the result is a running attack that has been rather average this year. Indiana has been even worse running the ball, averaging just 95.2 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry. Stevie Scott and Sampson James have struggled to find holes and are both averaging under 4 yards per carry. If one of these teams can sort out their issues on the ground and have success in the running game it will balance out the offensive attack and make them difficult to stop.

Prediction

Indiana is a good football team and Tom Allen has them climbing in the Big Ten, but Ohio State is a 21 point favorite for a reason. The Buckeyes are on another level talent wise and are a legitimate contender to win the national championship. Indiana’s receivers, Whop Philyore and Ty Fryfogle are legitimate threats and will make plays downfield for Penix, but the Ohio State defense has plenty of talent and will make enough stops to allow their offense to pull away. In the end, Fields and his receivers are too talented and will score too many points for the Hoosiers to keep up. Ohio State 49 Indiana 24.

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