Game To Watch: #6 Iowa State at #10 Oklahoma: December 19, 2020

Iowa State and Oklahoma will square off in the Big 12 Championship this Saturday at 12:00 EST in Arlington. The Cyclones went 8 – 2 this year and won five in a row to close out the regular season. The Sooners went 7 – 2 in the regular season, winning six in a row after their loss to Iowa State earlier this year. Both teams need some help to make the playoff but with a win and some chaos ahead of them they could be in.

Recent History

This is a rematch of the October 3rd match-up between the two teams. Iowa State won that game 37 – 30 in a back and forth game. Oklahoma had a seven point lead with just over eight minutes left, but Iowa State scored two touchdowns and intercepted a Spencer Rattler pass into the endzone to close out the game. The game continued a trend of close games between the two teams. The last five contests have been decided by ten points or less with Oklahoma winning three and Iowa State taking two.

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What To Watch For…

How much has Oklahoma’s defense improved?

Iowa State scored 37 points against Oklahoma the first time the two teams met this year. That was in the middle game of a three game stretch when Oklahoma allowed 38, 37 and 45 points in consecutive games. Since that three game stretch, the Sooners have not allowed an opponent over 30 points and have held four of their last five opponents to 14 points or less. The defense has had an improved pass rush over the last five games, recording 21 sacks over that five game stretch or 4.2 sacks per game. The last time Oklahoma played Iowa State they only sacked Brock Purdy once. The defensive resurgence has coincided with the return of star defensive end Ronnie Perkins who missed the first five games of the season due to a suspension. Perkins has been a strong pass rusher and has created opportunities for his teammates as well. Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto have both seen their sack numbers improve since Perkins returned. Oklahoma’s defense is playing much better since the first match-up with Iowa State, the question is have they improved enough to get the win?

Can Iowa State’s running game control the tempo of the game?

Breece Hall has had a dominant season for the Cyclones. He is the focal point of the Iowa State offense and despite being the center of attention for every opponent Iowa State faces he has topped 90 rushing yards in every game this season. In the first meeting between these two teams, Hall ran for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries. In addition to Hall the Cyclones have been able to run the zone read effectively with quarterback Brock Purdy keeping the defense honest. Purdy has 310 rushing yards of his own this year, giving the Cyclones a viable threat to keep the ball at the quarterback position. Iowa State will attempt to run the ball, control the clock and tempo of the game and keep the Oklahoma offense on the sideline. The Sooners have the best run defense in the Big 12 and allow less than three yards per carry and less than 90 yards per game. If Oklahoma is able to hold the Cyclones under 100 yards rushing on Saturday it will be tough for Iowa State to win the game.

Which quarterback will have the better game?

The quarterback position is and always has been the most important on the field. Brock Purdy of Iowa State is an experienced leader who has had an excellent career. He has been the Cyclones’ starter for three years now and has helped elevated the program and put them in position to win their first Big 12 title. In both of Iowa State’s losses this season, Purdy did not play well. He averaged less than five yards per attempt in both games and had one touchdown pass against two interceptions. For Oklahoma, Spencer Rattler is a highly touted recruit who is in his first season as the starter for the Sooners. He has grown and matured as the season has progressed and has Oklahoma in position to win another Big 12 title. Rattler’s big issue in the Sooner’s two losses was turnovers. He threw four interceptions in the two games the Sooners lost and just three in the other seven games they played in 2020. Both teams have a quality quarterback behind center and as simple as it sounds, these two players will have to play well for their team to win on Saturday.

Prediction

Iowa State is a more veteran team and has the experience to lean on. They have spent their careers at Iowa State climbing toward this goal and should play inspired football. The veteran leadership will allow them to be steady early and start strong. Oklahoma may have younger players in key roles, but the talent is evident. Oklahoma’s firepower will show up and the Sooners will have a flurry or two that the Cyclones will have to withstand. In the end the game will be close like the first meeting between the two teams and Iowa State’s experience will hold off the young Sooners. Iowa State 34 Oklahoma 31.

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ISU vs OSU 2019-10-26 Image by Daniel Hartwig is licensed under CC BY 2.0.