Game To Watch: #2 Clemson vs #3 Ohio State: January 1, 2021

Clemson and Ohio State will play in a rematch of last year’s semifinal match-up in this year’s College Football Playoff semifinal this Friday at 8:00 EST in New Orleans. The Tigers come in with a 10 – 1 record and as champions of the ACC after avenging their only loss of the season against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes are 6 – 0 and held off Northwestern to win the Big Ten Championship. Rematches are always interesting but with a trip to the national championship game on the line the stakes could not be higher.

Recent History

This is a rematch of last year’s semifinal game which Clemson won 29 – 23. Ohio State outplayed Clemson for most of the game, but did not execute in the redzone and caught some bad breaks that swung the momentum in Clemson’s favor. Clemson has had Ohio State’s number, winning all four games between the two teams, including three in the past decade. The Buckeyes will take another crack at solving the riddle that is Clemson on Friday night.

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What To Watch For…

Can Ohio State slowdown the Clemson offense?

Ohio State has only played six games this year, and only three of those were with their full roster. The Buckeyes replaced a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball from last years team and have not had much time to get new players acclimated. Clemson’s offense hurt the Buckeyes last year with Trevor Lawrence’s running ability and by using Travis Etienne on screen passes. Of course, that was with Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette and Malik Harrison among others. This year Clemson will look to test an inexperienced secondary that gave up several big plays against Indiana earlier this year. With three new starters on the back end, Ohio State’s pass defense is not as intimidating as it was a year ago. Lawrence threw for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns against Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game and will test the Buckeyes secondary early and often on Friday. He has an explosive group of weapons, including Etienne who may be the best receiving threat out of the backfield in college football. Ohio State has to limit Clemson’s big plays and force the TIgers into mistakes if they want to pull off the upset this year.

Will Justin Fields bounce back?

Justin Fields had the worst game of his career in the Big Ten Championship Game. Fields did sprain his right wrist during the game and was without junior receiver Chris Olave and freshman Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Nonetheless, Fields is too good to go 12 for 27 passing for 114 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Chris Olave is expected back and Fields should be healthy for the game against Clemson. He will need to prove that the one game was an aberration and not something Northwestern did schematically to stymie the talented quarterback. Clemson’s Brent Venables is arguably the best defensive coordinator in college football, there is no doubt he will have studied how Northwestern defended the Ohio State passing game and will try to incorporate those same concepts into his scheme Friday night. Clemson’s defense is full of talented athletes and may be young up front, but has played very well this year. Clemson holds opponents to 17.5 points per game and only allowed more than 30 points once this year. If Ohio State is going to score against Clemson, Fields has to return to form in the passing game.

Can Clemson’s front seven contain the Ohio State running game?

Luckily for Ohio State, their running game has come on as the season has progressed and absolutely dominated against Northwestern. Trey Sermon set the school record with 331 rushing yards in the game. Sermon has seen his yards per carry increase from 4.3 in the first two games to 6.1 the next two games to 11.4 the last two games. In addition to Sermon’s effectiveness, Justin Fields has run the ball more the last three games as well, running for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns over those three games. Clemson’s defensive front is very talented, but does play several underclassmen in key roles. The run defense has been very strong most of the year holding opponents to just 2.8 yards per carry. Notre Dame was the only team to run for over 200 yards against Clemson this year, but that was without several of Clemson’s starters in the lineup. In the rematch with Notre Dame, the Tigers held the Irish to 44 rushing yards. Ohio State wants to be balanced on offense, if Clemson can take away the running game it will make the Buckeyes one dimensional and allow them to focus on disrupting Fields.

Prediction

Ohio State probably should have won this game last year. They will be fired up to avenge their loss from a year ago, but this is not the same team from a year ago. The defense lost seven starters from last years team. with three of them being drafted in the first round. The Buckeyes have a talented offense and they will score points, but it’s hard to imagine them stopping Lawrence and the Clemson offense this year either. Both teams will score in the 30s but Ohio State should have enough offense to win a shootout. Ohio State 38 Clemson 35.

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