Game To Watch: #14 Oklahoma State at #18 Oklahoma: November 21, 2020

Bedlam. Oklahoma State visits Oklahoma Saturday night at 7:30 PM and the Rivalry game will have major consequences in the Big 12 race. The Cowboys are 5 – 1 overall and 4 – 1 in the conference after a 20 – 18 win over Kansas State. Oklahoma has bounce back from a slow start and is 5 – 2 and 4 – 2 in conference, they won three straight games rather convincingly against TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas. These teams would be ready to play one another anyway, but the game is critical in the Big 12 standings as well.

Recent History

Oklahoma has five straight games against Oklahoma State. The last win for the Cowboys came in 2014 when Oklahoma State edged out Oklahoma 38 – 35. In 2019, Oklahoma won 38 – 16 behind a strong running attack and a good defensive effort. Spencer Sanders and Tylan Wallace were both out with injuries and did not play for Oklahoma State in that game.

Top 25 Players

What To Watch For…

Can Chuba Hubbard get going?

Chuba Hubbard led the country with 2,094 rushing yards and 161.1 yards per game in 2019. He was expected to pick up where he left off for the Cowboys, but that has not materialized in 2020. Hubbard has seen his production drop across the board. The yards per game have dropped from 161.1 to 96.8, the yards per carry are down from 6.4 to 4.7 and after only failing to break 100 yards rushing once last year he has already been held under 100 three times this year. A running back does not succeed in a vacuum, the offensive line plays a big role in the success and failure of a running back, as does the effectiveness of the passing game. The knock on Hubbard is that his backup, LD Brown, is averaging 6.2 yards per carry with 10 carries per game. Hopefully the bye week gave Hubbard and the Cowboys time to rest up and assess what was keeping their star running back from getting loose. Saturday, they will face the best run defense in the Big 12, Oklahoma is holding opponents to 98.6 rushing yards per game. If Hubbard can get going it will open up opportunities for the rest of the offense to make big plays on Saturday.

How will Spencer Rattler fair against a good Oklahoma State defense?

Spencer Rattler has had an excellent season for the Sooners, the problem is he was replacing three straight Heisman contenders which set the expectations very high. Rattler has completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,018 yards with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while also running for 101 yards and 3 touchdowns. The interceptions were an issue for Rattler earlier in the season as he threw five of them in a three game stretch against Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas, but he has only thrown one in the three games since and appears to have fixed that issue. Oklahoma State has the best scoring defense in the Big 12, allowing just 17.8 points per game. The pass defense has been particularly strong, allowing just 169.3 yards per game this season. With an excellent pair of safeties in Kolby Harvell-Peel (2 interceptions and 2 pass breakups in five games) and Tre Sterling (1 interception, 2 pass breakups and 5 TFL in 6 games) on the back-end, the Cowboys have a secondary that can cover a lot of ground and take away passing lanes. They will challenge Rattler to make good decisions and accurate throws, otherwise he may see a couple going the other way against the Cowboys.

Is Oklahoma’s defensive turnaround for real?

Oklahoma’s defense gave up over 30 points three weeks in a row against Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas, but since then they have not allowed an opponent over 30 points, holding TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas to 14, 28 and 9 points respectively. The obvious difference is that the last three opponents all rank in the bottom half of the Big 12 in scoring offense, TCU and Kansas ranking 9th and 10th. Oklahoma State’s offense ranks seventh in the conference in scoring, but those stats are skewed because of Spencer Sanders’ injury early in the season. The Cowboys had an off week to get healthy and have proven stars in Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace who can make explosive plays and score points quickly. They will test the Oklahoma defense to see if the Sooners have actually gotten better or if they are just playing teams that can’t score.

Prediction

The Sooners are seven point favorites on Saturday night. The defense has played better of late but Oklahoma State has the firepower to score points and should break 30 on Saturday. Rattler and company will move the ball as well, leading to a mini shootout. Both quarterbacks will have at least one turnover that stymies the offense some. Hubbard and Wallace will go over 100 yards leading the Cowboys to hard fought win. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 31.

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ISU vs OSU 2019-10-26 Image by Daniel Hartwig is licensed under CC BY 2.0.